Fitch dice che l'accumulo di riserve sostenibili è la chiave per l'aggiornamento del rating della Turchia

Fitch Ratings highlighted on Tuesday that Türkiye’s economy has maintained resilience amid rising geopolitical tensions, emphasizing that sustained growth in international reserves is essential for any future improvement in the country’s sovereign credit rating. This assessment comes after Fitch reaffirmed Türkiye’s long-term foreign currency sovereign rating at “BB-” with a stable outlook earlier in the week. The agency’s evaluation follows a broader reassessment triggered by the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, which intensified supply disruptions and contributed to increased inflation in early summer. Erich Arispe Morales, a senior director at Fitch, stated that while the conflict initially caused inflation to spike, recent data suggests a gradual stabilization. Inflation, which reached over 30% in late May, dropped slightly to 32.1% in June, marking a modest slowdown in price increases. However, Morales warned that persistent inflationary pressures remain, and reducing them to sustainable levels will require consistent monetary policies and credible governance. The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) recently revised its end-2026 inflation forecast upward to 24%, citing the lingering impact of the Iran war on short-term costs. It anticipates further declines, projecting inflation to reach 15% by year-end 2027 and 9% by 2028. Morales acknowledged that Türkiye’s international reserves, which dipped during the conflict, have partially rebounded but remain below pre-war levels. Despite this, he noted that inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, and the central bank’s commitment to curbing inflation appears firm. The CBRT has maintained high real interest rates and reinforced its policy framework, helping stabilize inflation expectations even amidst heightened uncertainty. Domestic confidence in the Turkish lira has held steady, with dollarization, measured as the share of foreign currency holdings, remaining around 38%. Geopolitical instability continues to pose challenges, particularly given the ongoing conflict and its ripple effects on global markets. Morales stressed that while the situation presents risks for Turkey and other emerging economies, the nation’s economic structure has shown relative stability. A robust banking system, combined with access to external capital, has mitigated some of the adverse impacts of the crisis. These elements, along with the government’s adherence to fiscal discipline, have bolstered investor sentiment and reduced the likelihood of abrupt financial shocks. The agency underscored that the durability of reserve accumulation will play a pivotal role in determining whether Türkiye qualifies for a rating upgrade. Given the country’s reliance on external financing, Morales emphasized that any progress in rebuilding reserves must be both measurable and enduring. He expressed cautious optimism, noting that Fitch expects reserves to increase slightly by year-end but cautioned that the long-term viability of these gains will determine the outcome. “Sustained improvements in reserves are crucial,” he said, highlighting the need for consistent policy execution and structural reforms. Looking ahead, Morales reiterated that Fitch will maintain close scrutiny of Türkiye’s economic performance, especially regarding inflation control and reserve management. The agency believes the Turkish economy, while vulnerable to external shocks, possesses the institutional capacity to navigate current uncertainties. As the country works toward stabilizing its macroeconomic indicators, the success of its policy initiatives will remain a focal point for international ratings agencies and investors alike.