La destra brasiliana si assicura il Senato con la migliore performance elettorale degli ultimi 40 anni

Flávio Bolsonaro, a leading member of Brazil’s right-wing political family, emerged victorious in the first round of Brazil’s 2026 general elections, securing enough votes to face incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a runoff scheduled for October 25. Bolsonaro received 56.1 million votes, representing 47.03% of the total, while Lula secured 53.8 million votes, or 45.16%, according to official counts. The results mark the strongest showing for Brazil’s right wing since the country restored democracy in 1985. The election saw over 125 million voters cast ballots, with nearly 79% of Brazil’s 158.7 million eligible voters participating. In addition to the presidential race, citizens elected regional governors, members of the Chamber of Deputies, and two-thirds of the Senate. The outcome reflects a broader trend of right-wing dominance across multiple levels of government. At the national level, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) achieved historic success. It secured 28 of the 81 Senate seats, up from 15 previously. When combined with other right-wing factions, the PL and its allies will hold 43 Senate seats, enough to form a majority in the upper house. This positions the right wing to exert considerable influence over legislative decisions, particularly on issues requiring a 41-vote majority for standard legislation and 49 votes for constitutional amendments. In the Chamber of Deputies, the PL is expected to secure 121 of the 513 available seats, surpassing previous records. The party’s dominance in both chambers marks a significant shift in Brazil’s political landscape, as it becomes the largest parliamentary group since the 1988 constitutional reform. Leftist parties, including the Workers' Party (PT), the Communist Party of Brazil, and the Brazilian Green Party, collectively secured 88 seats, but remain in second place. The results also reflect the continued influence of the Bolsonaro family. Four relatives of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup following his loss to Lula in 2022, were elected to Congress. These include Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle, and sons Carlos and Jair Renan, along with his brother, Renato. Their victories underscore the enduring appeal of the Bolsonaro brand within Brazil’s political sphere. Regional elections also favored the right. Tarcísio de Freitas, a former minister under Jair Bolsonaro, was re-elected governor of São Paulo, while Sérgio Moro, another former minister, won the governorship of Paraná. Both figures were prominent members of the previous administration and are aligned with the right-wing agenda. Despite his narrow margin in the first round, Lula faces a daunting challenge in the runoff. Political analysts suggest that reversing the current trajectory will be difficult, given the widespread support for the right wing and the lack of a clear path for Lula to gain additional backing. One analyst noted that miracles in politics are rare, and the current momentum appears firmly behind Bolsonaro. Donald Trump, a long-time supporter of the Bolsonaro family, praised the results, calling it a “big victory.” He expressed confidence that the runoff would be a “very close election,” though he acknowledged the strength of the right-wing movement in Brazil. If elected, Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to grant amnesty to his father, Jair Bolsonaro, and to deepen ties with the Trump administration. These promises highlight the potential implications of a right-wing victory for Brazil’s domestic and international relations. As the nation prepares for the October 25 runoff, the political landscape continues to evolve. With the right wing holding a commanding presence in both houses of Congress, the outcome of the presidential race could shape Brazil’s direction for years to come.