Il governo ha pagato la Fepc, ma ha lasciato il conto per dopo.

The Colombian government has paid off part of its fuel price stabilization fund's (Fepc) debt, but instead of using its own resources, it has resorted to issuing public debt, effectively passing some of the financial burden onto future administrations. This approach was revealed through statements made by President Gustavo Petro earlier this year, who highlighted how recent deterioration in public finances can be attributed largely to the Fepc's deficit. While the government claims much of this debt was inherited from previous administrations, it is acknowledged that a portion of the deficit occurred during the current administration’s tenure. The key point often overlooked is that since late 2024, the government has been settling Fepc obligations with Ecopetrol by issuing public debt, thereby shifting a significant share of the responsibility to future governments. The Fepc was established in 2007 to shield Colombians from abrupt fluctuations in international oil prices. When global gasoline or diesel prices exceed the government-set domestic levels, the fund covers the difference to prevent sharp increases in consumer prices. Conversely, when international prices are low, domestic prices are set higher, allowing the fund to accumulate resources for future periods of high prices. However, over the past few years, rising international fuel prices combined with the political cost of raising domestic prices have led to substantial deficits within the Fepc. What began as a mechanism for stabilizing prices has become one of the country’s largest fiscal obligations in recent times. Deficits in the Fepc are not new. Since 2010, the fund has recorded only one surplus in 2020. For much of that period, however, the amount owed by the nation was relatively manageable. Between 2010 and 2019, annual deficits averaged around $1.5 trillion, which previous governments could cover using available funds or compensation from Ecopetrol, the fund’s main creditor. An example of this was in 2023, when the government settled the accumulated 2022 deficit of $36.7 trillion using a $21.5 trillion accounting adjustment from Ecopetrol profits and covering the remainder with its own resources. However, the growing magnitude of the accumulated deficit and worsening public finances prompted the current government to implement two measures. The first was accelerating the increase in domestic fuel prices to reduce the gap between internal and international prices, thus lowering the amount payable under the Fepc. The second, less visible measure, involved financing Fepc payments through the issuance of public debt. Starting in the second half of 2024, the government began replacing debt owed to Ecopetrol with debt issued to investors purchasing national debt instruments. In 2024, the government paid $20.6 trillion related to the accumulated Fepc deficit. Of this total, nearly $9.6 trillion, or 46 percent, was covered by issuing long-term domestic debt instruments known as TES (Títulos de Tesorería). According to calculations by Investigaciones Económicas of the Banco de Bogotá, these payments were made using bonds maturing in 2036. This method allows the government to manage immediate liquidity issues while deferring the repayment obligation to future administrations, potentially impacting the country’s fiscal landscape in the coming years. The shift in funding strategy reflects broader economic challenges faced by Colombia, including managing inflationary pressures and maintaining fiscal sustainability amid volatile global energy markets. As the government continues to navigate these complexities, the reliance on public debt to address the Fepc deficit raises questions about long-term fiscal planning and the potential implications for future budgets. With the current approach, the government aims to balance immediate financial demands with the need to ensure economic stability over time.