Demografia e pianificazione familiare: anche la mancanza di alloggi fa sì che i figli siano troppo pochi

The number of children being born in Germany continues to decline, driven by a combination of global crises, housing shortages, and labor market challenges. A recent study conducted by the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB) using data from the Family Demographic Panel FReDA reveals that the fertility rate has fallen from 1.58 to 1.32 children per woman between 2021 and 2025. This trend mirrors that of the European Union, where the average fertility rate dropped to 1.34 in 2024. Low birth rates, around 1.3 or 1.4 children per woman, are projected to result in a generation that is roughly one-third smaller than current levels, assuming no immigration. The desire for children among young Germans remains higher than actual births. According to the latest survey from 2024–25, women expressed an average wish for 1.69 children, while men desired 1.64. These figures have declined since 2022–23, when respondents had hoped for approximately 1.8 children. Despite this, many young people still view having two children as the ideal family size, based on long-term surveys of individuals aged 18 to 39 years. Martin Bujard, co-author of the study, noted that many people are having fewer children than they originally intended. The research attributes this shift to a variety of factors, including global crises such as military conflicts, weakened democracies, climate change, and economic instability. For the first time, the FReDA panel also asked participants about their concerns regarding local living conditions. Over 70 percent of young respondents, including childless individuals and parents, were dissatisfied with the availability of housing in their region. More than 40 percent were unhappy with job and income opportunities in their area. Carmen Friedrich, another co-author, explained that the desire to have a child increases by five percentage points when housing and employment conditions are satisfactory. Conversely, the desire for children decreases by ten percentage points when individuals express significant worries about global issues. Earlier research by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) found that 18 percent of respondents in Germany cited lack of housing space and high housing costs as barriers to having more children than they wished. Financial reasons were mentioned by 25 percent, while only 12 percent named insufficient childcare as a limiting factor. According to Bujard, family policy alone is insufficient to bridge the gap between the desire for children and actual births. He emphasized that personal and societal optimism plays a crucial role. After the introduction of parental benefits, expansion of childcare services, and increased immigration, the fertility rate in Germany rose from 1.60 in 2011 to 2016 before declining again since 2017. The ongoing challenges suggest that addressing these broader social and economic factors will be essential to reversing the downward trend in birth rates.