Cuba sull'orlo del collasso: il paese si prepara a un record del 72% di blackout

Cuba faces its most severe energy crisis yet, with projections indicating that up to 72 percent of the island could experience power outages on Sunday, July 5, during peak demand hours. This would surpass the previous record set on Friday, when 71 percent of the country was affected by blackouts. According to data compiled by the state-owned electricity company Unión Eléctrica and shared by the Spanish news agency EFE, the situation has reached critical levels, particularly during late afternoons, evenings, and even early mornings.

The crisis has been exacerbated by ongoing issues at the Antonio Guiteras Thermal Power Plant, which serves as the primary electricity generator on the island. The plant has experienced frequent shutdowns due to malfunctions and insufficient maintenance. As of this week, ten out of sixteen power generation units nationwide have been non-operational, either due to mechanical failures or scheduled maintenance work. This has created a significant gap between supply and demand, with a projected deficit of 2,230 megawatts. Meanwhile, the maximum power requirement for the country is estimated at 3,100 megawatts, highlighting the severity of the shortfall.

The energy mix in Cuba consists of 40 percent thermal generators reliant on diesel and fuel oil, another 40 percent dependent on petroleum imports, and the remaining 20 percent sourced from natural gas and renewable energy. However, since January 2026, the United States has intensified economic sanctions against Cuba, including restrictions on oil imports, which have further strained the nation's ability to secure necessary fuel supplies. Cuban officials estimate that they require approximately 100,000 barrels of oil daily to meet basic energy needs but can currently produce only 40,000 barrels domestically. This shortage has forced the government to rely heavily on external financing, which has become increasingly difficult to obtain due to international credit constraints and the country’s poor financial reputation.

The current crisis has roots in the collapse of Cuba’s traditional model of energy supply, which relied heavily on subsidized oil imports from Venezuela. For years, Cuba received nearly free oil shipments from Venezuela in exchange for medical services and security assistance. However, these deliveries ceased abruptly at the beginning of 2026, leaving the Cuban economy exposed to the harsh realities of purchasing fuel at market prices. With limited foreign currency earnings and a centrally planned system that lacks mechanisms for generating hard currency, Cuba struggles to afford the necessary fuel imports to sustain its aging infrastructure.

Analysts argue that while the U.S. sanctions have undoubtedly worsened the situation, the underlying issue lies in Cuba’s inability to modernize its energy sector. Independent studies suggest that upgrading the entire electrical grid would require investments ranging from eight to ten billion euros. Yet, due to chronic underfunding, outdated systems, and the lack of private investment, such upgrades remain out of reach. Additionally, Cuba’s history of defaulting on international debts and its reluctance to embrace market reforms have made it challenging for the country to attract foreign investment or secure loans.

As parts of Havana face periods of darkness lasting up to 20 consecutive hours, the recent record-breaking blackout underscores the depth of the crisis. The situation reflects not just a technical failure but also a broader systemic challenge rooted in economic mismanagement, geopolitical tensions, and structural limitations within the Cuban economy. With no immediate solutions on the horizon and both internal and external pressures mounting, the future of Cuba’s energy stability remains uncertain.