L'India può disinnescare la minaccia sottomarina pakistana nel Golfo del Bengala?

India’s eastern coast has become a focal point of strategic concern following the commissioning of a China-built submarine by Pakistan, according to reports from India Today. The vessel, part of a series of eight Hangor-class diesel-electric submarines, was delivered to Pakistan last month after a voyage through Colombo. Its arrival marks a potential shift in regional dynamics, as it could grant Pakistan a renewed presence in the Bay of Bengal, a critical area for India’s maritime security. The Hangor-class submarines, derived from China’s Yuan-class design, are equipped with air-independent propulsion (AIP) technology, allowing them to remain submerged for up to three weeks. This capability significantly enhances their operational range and stealth, enabling them to conduct prolonged missions far from their bases. The first of these submarines, PNS Hangor, was officially commissioned in April, and its mission commander, Commodore Omer Farooq, remarked during a naval event in Colombo that the vessel would provide Pakistan with the means to project power into the Bay of Bengal. This statement has raised alarms in New Delhi, as such a move would represent Pakistan’s first known naval presence in the region since the 1971 war, when it lost control over its eastern territories. The Bay of Bengal, covering roughly 2.6 million square kilometers, is vital to India’s national interests. It hosts key military installations, including the Eastern Naval Command based in Visakhapatnam and the highly classified nuclear submarine base, INS Varsha. Any foreign naval activity in these waters could disrupt India’s surveillance capabilities and threaten its strategic assets. Moreover, the region serves as a crucial corridor for trade and logistics connecting India with Southeast Asia, making it a sensitive zone for maritime security. Naval analysts suggest that the Hangor-class submarines could facilitate covert operations in the northern Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. Their advanced sensor suites, coupled with weapons such as heavy torpedoes, anti-ship missiles, and the nuclear-capable Babur-3 cruise missile system, make them formidable assets. If deployed effectively, these submarines could challenge India’s dominance in the region, particularly given the growing assertiveness of China in the Indian Ocean. Observers warn that the combination of Pakistan’s naval modernization efforts and China’s expanding influence could create a sustained maritime presence that complicates India’s defense posture. Pakistan’s naval expansion is part of a broader strategy to counterbalance India’s maritime superiority. The country has been investing in modern platforms such as frigates, corvettes, and long-range maritime patrol aircraft, alongside integrating cyber and space-based capabilities. The Hangor-class submarines are considered the cornerstone of this effort. With four more vessels, PNS/M Shushuk, PNS/M Mangro, and PNS/M Ghazi, expected to join the fleet, Pakistan aims to enhance its ability to project power beyond its immediate coastal waters. Admiral Sunil Lanba, a retired naval officer, noted that while the Hangor submarine’s range might allow it to operate in the Bay of Bengal, its impact would depend on whether it can successfully execute complex missions. He emphasized that the effectiveness of such deployments would hinge on factors such as operational coordination, intelligence gathering, and the ability to sustain long-term presence in hostile environments. As tensions continue to rise in the region, experts caution that the introduction of Pakistan’s new submarine fleet could alter the balance of power in the Bay of Bengal. For India, the challenge lies not only in countering this emerging threat but also in maintaining its strategic dominance in one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors. The coming months will likely see increased scrutiny of Pakistan’s naval activities and India’s responses to ensure the security of its eastern flank.