Predsjednički izbori u Brazilu: Pobjeda uz i usprkos Internetu

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured his third term in office on Sunday, defeating right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in a decisive runoff election. According to preliminary results from the electoral commission with 99.81 percent of votes counted, Lula received 51.76 percent of the valid ballots, while Bolsonaro garnered 48.24 percent. This victory marks a historic reversal, as no candidate in Brazilian history has ever won the presidency after trailing in the first round since direct elections resumed in 1989. Three weeks prior, Bolsonaro had led with 47 percent against Lula’s 45 percent, leading many analysts to predict the end of Lula’s political career. Instead, the incumbent president gained approximately 10.4 million additional votes for the second round, compared to just 3.7 million for his opponent. The campaign was defined by a dramatic shift in digital strategy. Following his initial defeat, left-wing deputy André Janones transformed a WhatsApp channel into a central coordination hub for "Lula's Army." From this platform, Janones directed volunteers, assigned them specific missions, and urged them to amplify Lula’s messages on social media under the slogan "Go viral!" The channel grew explosively within days, expanding from roughly 50,000 members to nearly 3.5 million. By election day, the group claimed almost 11 million participants. While this digital surge was pivotal, it was coupled with traditional ground mobilization. Political scientist Denilde Holzhacker noted that the success stemmed from linking these digital campaigns with direct engagement with voters on the street. She observed that Lula recognized his previous weaknesses and fundamentally altered his style, while Janones achieved what seemed impossible for the Brazilian left: dominating social media spaces previously held by right-wing politicians. The election took place against a backdrop of intense controversy regarding online censorship and platform manipulation. Two weeks before the vote, Meta temporarily restricted the reach of numerous Instagram accounts critical of Bolsonaro or aligned with the political left. Earlier in September, Meta had suspended paid advertising accounts belonging to Lula’s team on Facebook and Instagram, citing alleged rule violations. Users also expressed confusion over why Meta’s AI agent could generate images of Bolsonaro but not Lula. The non-governmental organization CTRL+Z documented more than one thousand instances of online censorship, primarily on Instagram, affecting accounts close to Lula. Additionally, the international NGO Ekō reported that Meta accepted AI-generated disinformation ads, some booked from abroad, while Amnesty International highlighted how easily Facebook could be misused for such manipulative campaigns. Lula filed a complaint with the country’s Supreme Electoral Court, accusing Meta, owned by Mark Zuckerberg, of manipulating the election in favor of Bolsonaro. Meta rejected these allegations, attributing the issues to technical errors. Despite these challenges, Lula leveraged the state apparatus to boost social benefits during the campaign. His opponent, however, struggled to consolidate broad right-wing support onto his person. Investigations into the financing of a film about his father, along with other scandals exposed during the campaign, weighed heavily against him. These issues proved more damaging than the negative campaigning directed at Lula. On election night, celebrations erupted in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Supporters lit fireworks, sang, and embraced on Avenida Paulista in São Paulo. Lula celebrated with family and allies before addressing supporters, thanking young voters who he said took to the streets to defend democracy. He characterized the result as a "defeat of negativity and lies." His running mate, Geraldo Alckmin, stated that Lula had saved Brazilian democracy for the second time. In contrast, the mood among Flávio Bolsonaro’s supporters in Brasília was somber. Many left his residence visibly disappointed and angry. Bolsonaro’s campaign had already expressed doubts about the conduct of the election before results were announced. A contentious decision by the presiding judge extended voting hours by two hours shortly before polling stations closed. The extension was ordered due to severe public transport bottlenecks in several cities and bad weather in certain regions, which hindered voter access. Both campaigns requested the extension. However, Bolsonaro’s campaign manager warned of a potential "judicial coup," criticizing Judge Zanin for the late order. Conversely, Lula’s camp accused Cassio Nunes Marques, the head of the electoral court, of remaining inactive too long despite having a request for extension pending since midday. Flávio Bolsonaro’s refusal to accept the outcome immediately sets up future legal battles. His party, the Liberal Party, gained influence in parliamentary elections, leaving the left in a minority in Congress. This makes governing difficult for Lula, who will need to negotiate with centrist parties to pass legislation. For Lula, turning 81 on Tuesday, this is his fourth presidential victory. He previously led Brazil from 2003 to 2010 and returned to power in January 2023 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022. His career includes a 2017 corruption conviction that kept him in prison for over 18 months until the verdicts were annulled in 2021. Internationally, Lula’s win serves as a setback for US President Donald Trump, who hoped to have a close ally in Latin America’s largest economy. Under Lula, Brazil is expected to maintain its independent foreign policy and strong economic ties with China. In his post-election address, Lula announced plans for stricter regulation of major technology platforms.