Može li Fed podići kamatne stope?

President Donald Trump claimed during a public appearance that he understood the intentions of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, stating, “I know what he wants to do,” as he continued to push for lower interest rates. This remark came amid growing speculation about the direction of monetary policy following the latest economic data and shifting market dynamics. The Federal Reserve is set to meet next week, with its key interest rate decision expected on July 29. The meeting follows a period of heightened uncertainty, driven largely by surging oil prices that have pushed crude above $100 per barrel. These elevated energy costs have reignited concerns about inflation, prompting some analysts to revise their expectations for future rate moves. Earlier in the year, many economists had anticipated at least one rate cut in 2026, but the resurgence of inflation has shifted forecasts toward the possibility of rate hikes before the year ends. Chairman Kevin Warsh has maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing the need to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target. During the June meeting, Warsh chose not to release individual economic projections, a departure from previous practice. Despite this lack of clarity, nearly half of the Fed’s policymakers indicated they would support a rate hike later in the year. The Fed’s internal deliberations remain opaque, with limited insight into Warsh’s personal economic outlook, as he has committed to providing less forward guidance than in past years. Investors are increasingly looking for strategies to hedge against potential volatility, with some financial institutions advising protection against a more hawkish Fed. Citigroup strategists suggested that smaller-cap stocks could serve as a defensive option for investors concerned about the impact of tighter monetary policy. Meanwhile, bond markets are under pressure, with yields fluctuating in response to changing expectations about future interest rates. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which tracks market sentiment using 30-day Fed funds futures prices, currently estimates a 38% chance that the Fed will raise rates at its upcoming meeting, up from 12% just a week prior. However, the majority of forecasts still anticipate the Fed maintaining its current target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. This would represent the fifth consecutive meeting where the central bank has chosen not to change rates, reflecting a broader trend of caution in the wake of persistent inflationary pressures. Experts remain divided on the likely path of monetary policy. While most believe the Fed will keep rates stable for now, some warn that geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, could disrupt economic stability and lead to a reassessment of inflation trends. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, noted that a rate hike in September could signal a turning point, depending on whether inflation remains subdued. His assessment suggests a 60–40 chance that the Fed will maintain its current course through the remainder of the year. As the Fed prepares to deliver its next rate decision, the outcome will depend heavily on incoming economic data and global developments. With oil prices continuing to climb and inflation showing signs of resilience, the central bank faces mounting pressure to balance its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the Fed continues its current trajectory or begins to shift toward a more aggressive stance.