Le délai expire à minuit

The deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump for the European Union to fulfill its obligations under the trade agreement between the two regions expired at midnight on July 4th. This date was chosen as a symbolic milestone, coinciding with the United States' 250th anniversary as an independent nation. Trump had previously warned that if the EU did not meet its commitments before this date, he would impose significantly higher tariffs on European goods. However, according to Norway's largest business organization, Norsk Hovedorganisasjon (NHO), the risk of a new acute trade conflict appears minimal.

According to Petter Tollefsen, international director at NHO, the EU has made the necessary formal decisions prior to the deadline. He stated that the risk of a new conflict specifically tied to the July 4th deadline is now considered very low. The EU countries passed the final legislation required to complete their part of the agreement last week after the European Parliament gave its approval earlier in June. Thus, it seems the EU has fulfilled Trump’s demands before the deadline expired.

The trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU was signed last summer following extensive negotiations. It involves the EU removing tariffs on several American industrial products and providing better market access for certain agricultural and seafood products from the U.S. In return, the U.S. continues to apply a 15 percent tariff on most European goods instead of even higher rates that Trump had previously threatened to impose. Trump made it clear in May that if the EU did not ratify the agreement by July 4th, the tariffs would "immediately" increase to much higher levels.

Although Norway is not a party to the agreement, a trade conflict between the world's two largest economic blocs could have significant consequences for Norwegian businesses. According to Tollefsen, the EU is the most important export market for Norwegian companies, and many Norwegian companies are deeply integrated into European value chains. Any trade conflict would therefore negatively impact Norwegian businesses. He emphasized that NHO has long been concerned about ensuring that Norwegian companies do not face worse market access to the U.S. than their European competitors and that they can continue to fully participate in European value chains. He noted that for employment, this primarily concerns investment willingness and activity. When uncertainty increases, companies become more cautious about investments and new hires.

Even Norwegian consumers could feel the effects if trade conflicts escalate. Tollefsen pointed out that trade conflicts make it more expensive to produce and transport goods across borders, and cost increases could eventually affect prices in Norway. He also stressed that the biggest challenge often comes from increased uncertainty. He highlighted that experiences from recent years show how quickly unrest in global trade can spread into financial markets, exchange rates, and corporate investment decisions.

Interest in Norwegian investments in Brazil has increased since Trump's presidency and the anticipated trade agreement between the EFTA countries (including Norway) and Mercosur. Norwegian companies benefit from reduced tariffs due to the agreement. A drone company called ScoutDI estimates that they will halve their tax rate when the Mercosur agreement takes effect. Thomas Conradi Granli, director of Innovation Norway in Rio de Janeiro, said that Trump and his tariff threats have accelerated this interest. He mentioned that during the three years he has been office manager in Rio, there has been a noticeable shift. A few years ago, Norwegian companies outside of energy and maritime sectors were primarily interested in the U.S., but now there is growing interest in Brazil and other South American countries.

Innovation Norway helps Norwegian companies enter the South American market by finding partners and customers and preparing for commercial relationships. Granli noted that in the past year and a half, more companies across various sectors have started looking at Brazil and other South American countries. He explained that the increased interest in Brazil began before Trump, partly due to the trade agreement between the EFTA countries (including Norway) and Mercosur countries (Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina), which is just around the corner. He added that the current wave of interest is triggered by this trade agreement, which will make it easier to import goods and services once ratified. He also suggested that this development is linked to the geopolitical situation, where Brazil appears as a safer market for Norwegian investments in a conflict-filled and unstable world.

The trade agreement between Norway and Mercosur countries saw total trade amounting to approximately 35 billion Norwegian kroner in 2025. Around 11 billion kroner consisted of Norwegian exports to Mercosur countries, mainly including fertilizers, petroleum, seafood, ship equipment, and machinery. Imports from Mercosur amounted to 24 billion kroner, primarily raw materials for aluminum production, soy for animal feed, meat, metals, coffee, tea, and spices. Norwegian trade with Mercosur has experienced an average annual growth of 15 percent over the past five years.

The Mercosur trade block consists of around 270 million inhabitants. The agreement was signed in Rio de Janeiro last autumn. Granli mentioned that there has been a drive to get the EFTA-Mercosur trade agreement underway alongside the EU-Mercosur trade agreement. He noted that when he arrived in Brazil at the beginning of 2023, there was already renewed interest in achieving these agreements. According to Statistics Norway, Norwegian foreign investments in Brazil accounted for 6 percent of total Norwegian foreign investments in 2024. According to a Menon report commissioned by the consulate general in Rio de Janeiro, Norwegian investments amounted to nearly 14 billion dollars in 2024, compared to slightly over 3 billion in 2015. Granli himself has worked many years in Brazil in other roles and believes that when the trade agreement is ratified, it will be the biggest thing to happen in the relationship between Norway and Brazil.