The true winner of the FIFA World Cup has already been determined, according to online prediction markets, which have generated substantial revenue through sports betting during the tournament. These platforms exploit legal loopholes to operate despite restrictions in certain regions. As of July 17, 2026, the World Cup features 104 matches, offering numerous opportunities for individuals to bet on match outcomes. Prediction marketplaces such as Polymarket and Kalshi have gained significant traction, drawing in football enthusiasts and even featuring endorsements from high-profile players like Croatia’s Luka Modrić. Prediction markets have strategically focused on football due to its appeal among young male audiences, who often view betting as a straightforward means of earning money. According to Manuela Eder, project leader for prevention at the Swiss Foundation for Addiction Prevention, this demographic exhibits heightened risk behavior related to gambling. She notes that a considerable portion of winnings might stem from problematic gambling habits, raising concerns over targeted marketing strategies aimed at these groups. The business model of prediction markets involves trading financial products rather than traditional betting. Users effectively purchase shares whose value fluctuates based on the outcome of specific matches. This distinction allows platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to bypass state-level bans on online betting, as regulation falls under federal authorities such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC has shown openness toward prediction markets, even challenging states attempting to regulate them. Legal challenges remain, however. In Switzerland, these platforms are prohibited, with the intercantonal gaming authority Gespa declaring them illegal before the start of the World Cup and blocking access to their websites. Despite these measures, users can circumvent the blocks using technical knowledge. Eder emphasizes the need for more proactive international collaboration and a centralized early warning system within Switzerland to address problematic gambling behaviors effectively. Kalshi and Polymarket have experienced notable growth, with transaction volumes increasing by 75 percent in June alone, reaching nearly $45 billion. While this figure represents total transactions rather than individual bets, it underscores the scale of activity on these platforms. The involvement of figures like Michael Selig, appointed by former U.S. President Donald Trump to lead the CFTC, further highlights the political and economic influence surrounding these markets. Selig previously worked as a lawyer for the firm representing Polymarket and advised investors in Kalshi, describing prediction markets as beneficial to society in recent interviews. As the World Cup progresses, the role of prediction markets continues to evolve, reflecting broader trends in digital finance and regulatory challenges. Their presence raises questions about the boundaries of legal frameworks governing online gambling and the potential implications for consumer protection and public health policies. The ongoing dialogue around these issues suggests that the landscape of digital betting will remain dynamic, influenced by both technological advancements and evolving legal standards.
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SRF NewsPublic / d’ÉtatProgressisteFactualité 85Objectivité 65hierL'article décrit comment des marchés de prévisions tels que Kalshi et Polymarket ont gagné de grosses sommes d'argent sur Internet en pariant sur le football. Ces plateformes profitent d'une faille juridique en affirmant qu'elles ne négocient pas avec des paris mais avec des produits financiers. Cela leur permet de rester actifs dans les États fédéraux qui interdisent les paris en ligne. Le volume des transactions sur ces plateformes a augmenté de 75% en juin à près de 45 milliards de dollars américains. En Suisse, les deux plateformes sont bloquées. Les experts préviennent que les jeunes hommes à haut risque sont particulièrement attaqués.
Lecture du biais (Progressiste): L'article souligne le danger potentiel que représentent pour les jeunes hommes des comportements problématiques en matière de paris et critique l'orientation du marché visée par le marché de prévision.
Pourquoi factualité (85): The article reports on increased betting volumes at prognostic markets like Kalshi and Polymarket during the World Cup, citing a 75% increase in transaction volume to nearly $45 billion. It references expert commentary from Manuela Eder regarding risk behavior among young men. While no primary sourc
Pourquoi objectivité (65): The article presents a critical perspective on the targeting of young men for sports betting, using emotive language such as 'problematisches Geldspielverhalten' and quoting an expert to imply moral judgment. The tone leans toward caution rather than neutrality, suggesting a potential bias against t
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