La hausse des prix de l'énergie et de l'essence due à la guerre en Iran freine l'économie britannique, selon l'OCDE

The Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned that rising energy and petrol prices, driven by the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, are slowing the UK economy. In its latest economic outlook, the OECD projected that the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by just 0.9 per cent in 2026, down from 1.4 per cent in 2025. This slowdown is attributed to increased energy costs, which have placed pressure on both households and businesses, undermining growth potential. The surge in energy prices stems directly from the escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the US-Israel conflict with Iran. These developments have heightened uncertainty in global markets, leading to volatility in oil and gas prices. As a result, the UK economy faces additional strain, with the OECD highlighting the country's continued reliance on fossil fuels as a key vulnerability. The report underscores the urgent need for faster decarbonisation of power generation and broader adoption of electric technologies to reduce future exposure to price fluctuations. Regional inequalities remain a critical challenge, with the OECD noting that uneven economic performance across different parts of the UK continues to hinder overall living standards. Higher unemployment rates and limited job opportunities for younger workers are particularly pronounced in certain areas, exacerbating social and economic divides. The report suggests that addressing these disparities is crucial for sustained growth and improved national prosperity. The government has responded to the OECD's findings, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves asserting that the economy is in a “much stronger position” than it was two years ago. She pointed to recent improvements in financial stability and confidence in the country’s economic trajectory. According to her, the UK is forecasted to be the fastest-growing G7 economy in Europe for the coming year and is expected to borrow less than the G7 average. Reeves emphasized the importance of investing in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence and strengthening ties with the European Union to drive further growth. Meanwhile, political changes are underway, with Andy Burnham preparing to take over as prime minister. He intends to launch a “No 10 North” initiative centered in Manchester, aiming to decentralize decision-making and grant greater autonomy to regional governments. This move would allow local authorities to manage essential services such as utilities, transportation, and housing, potentially improving efficiency and responsiveness to local needs. Burnham, a former mayor of Greater Manchester, has expressed his vision for transforming the UK through localized governance. His strategy reflects growing concerns about the centralization of power and seeks to empower communities to address their specific economic and social challenges. This shift could influence how policies related to energy, employment, and infrastructure are implemented across the country. As the UK navigates these economic and political shifts, the path forward will depend on balancing immediate challenges with long-term strategic goals. With the OECD warning of continued headwinds from geopolitical instability and energy price fluctuations, policymakers must ensure that reforms and investments align with both national priorities and regional realities. The coming months will test whether the government can maintain momentum in its growth agenda while addressing deep-seated structural issues within the economy.