La rencontre Poutine-Modi à l'OCS: les liens entre la Russie et l'Inde peuvent-ils tenir ?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, on Monday during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. The gathering marks a rare high-level diplomatic engagement between the two leaders amid complex geopolitical dynamics. The SCO, comprising eight nations including India and Russia, is often viewed as a counterbalance to U.S. influence in Eurasia. Their meeting takes place against the backdrop of ongoing global turbulence, particularly the protracted conflict in Ukraine, now entering its fifth year, and the recent escalation of hostilities involving the United States and Israel against Iran, which has further destabilized international energy markets. India has maintained its participation in the SCO while carefully avoiding alignment with an explicitly anti-Western stance. This strategy underscores New Delhi’s broader foreign policy objective of balancing relations with multiple global powers. However, this delicate equilibrium is being tested. Russia continues to face stringent Western sanctions due to its involvement in Ukraine, while India faces mounting pressure from the United States regarding its continued procurement of discounted Russian oil. These pressures have intensified trade tensions between the two countries, complicating their bilateral relationship. Meera Shankar, a former Indian ambassador to the United States, emphasized that India's relationship with Russia is not inherently adversarial toward the West. She stated that India's longstanding strategic partnership with Russia serves national interests rather than reflecting opposition to any specific nation. “India has a long-standing strategic relationship with Russia,” Shankar explained. “This is not directed against any country but intended to help India meet its national goals.” Energy has emerged as the most prominent aspect of the evolving India-Russia relationship. Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it accounted for only a minor portion of India’s crude oil imports. However, the availability of discounted Russian oil significantly altered this dynamic, positioning Moscow as one of India’s primary suppliers. This shift has sparked considerable friction with the United States, which has urged New Delhi to curtail its reliance on Russian energy sources. India, however, asserts that ensuring access to affordable and dependable energy remains a critical component of its national security and economic stability. Recent disruptions in traditional energy supply chains, exacerbated by the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have forced India to reconsider its energy sourcing strategies. According to Shankar, India is actively working to diversify its energy suppliers, incorporating both Russian and American sources. While transitioning to a non-fossil fuel-based economy could enhance India’s energy independence, such a transformation is expected to occur gradually. Defense cooperation represents another key dimension of the India-Russia relationship, though the trajectory appears to be shifting. Historically, Russia has been a major supplier of military equipment to India. However, concerns over Russia’s production capabilities, delivery timelines, and ability to provide spare parts have prompted New Delhi to explore alternatives. Aravind Yelery, an associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, noted that India is becoming increasingly hesitant to fully commit to Russia’s advanced fighter jet programs unless they align with domestic manufacturing initiatives. Despite this pivot, the defense relationship is not diminishing entirely but is evolving to support India’s growing self-reliance in defense production. Russia’s increasing reliance on China has introduced additional complexity into the India-Russia dynamic. Since the onset of the Ukraine war, China has emerged as a crucial economic partner for Russia, providing essential markets, resources, and infrastructure. This deepening Sino-Russian alliance has diminished Moscow’s potential role as a counterweight to Beijing, prompting strategic recalibration within the India-Russia relationship. Yelery highlighted that while Russia’s ties with China remain primarily transactional, India seeks a more balanced and mutually beneficial partnership with Russia, one that supports its own strategic and economic objectives.