Une tempête parfaite frappe les marchés de l'énergie

A perfect storm has hit global energy markets, driven by a confluence of factors including renewed tensions in the Middle East, extreme weather conditions, and Europe's urgent need to replenish natural gas reserves ahead of winter. These developments have triggered sharp price increases across the energy sector, creating heightened volatility and uncertainty in international markets. The situation escalated following another flare-up in the Middle East, which added to existing geopolitical strains. This was compounded by heat waves that coincided with the peak of the tourist season, placing additional strain on energy infrastructure and consumption patterns. At the same time, European nations intensified their efforts to secure sufficient natural gas supplies for the coming months, further tightening supply chains and pushing prices upward. Across Europe, the impact has been widespread. In Greece, the national average price for gasoline reached €1.977 per liter on Tuesday, marking a 14% increase since the beginning of the conflict involving Iran. Prices surpassed €2 per liter in 13 regional areas, with the Cyclades recording the highest level at €2.223 per liter. Diesel prices followed a similar trajectory, reaching an average of €1.950 per liter nationally, with some regions surpassing the €2 mark. Electricity markets have also faced significant pressure. The wholesale power price in July, up to July 22, saw a more than 24% increase compared to June, indicating that August utility bills will likely rise sharply. With rising air conditioning usage due to soaring temperatures, demand for electricity continues to climb, adding to the financial burden on households and businesses. European gas storage levels, which had dropped to 28% in April after the previous winter, have rebounded to 54.3%. However, this still leaves them approximately 20 percentage points below the historical seasonal average. Expectations that prices might stabilize led some countries to delay fuel purchases, but instead, prices continued to climb. September futures contracts at the Dutch TTF hub rose from around €40 per megawatt-hour following a ceasefire to over €58, significantly increasing the cost of refilling reserves. In Greece, the wholesale electricity price peaked at €142.21 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday before dropping to €115.80 as renewable energy sources contributed nearly 48% of total production. Despite this decline, the drop remained fragile. During evening hours, when solar generation declines, prices spiked again, reaching as high as €458 per megawatt-hour, underscoring the ongoing dependence on natural gas for power generation. Meanwhile, refined fuel markets have also experienced substantial movement. Between June 19 and July 20, Brent crude oil prices rose by 11.7%, climbing from $79.85 to $89.22 per barrel. International diesel prices surged nearly 43%, moving from $885 to $1,264 per ton, while gasoline prices increased by 22%, reflecting the added pressure from heightened tourism demand during the summer months.