Le boom de l'intelligence artificielle devrait mener les entreprises japonaises à des profits records pour la sixième année consécutive.

The Nasdaq Composite index concluded its strongest three-month performance since the onset of the pandemic, recording a rise of over 21%. This surge was driven primarily by continued investor enthusiasm for stocks tied to artificial intelligence (AI). The tech-heavy index, which includes some of the world's largest technology firms, saw significant gains between April and June, surpassing previous records set during the market rebound in early 2020 following the initial economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 crisis.

During this period, the S&P 500 also experienced substantial growth, rising by more than 14.87%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed nearly 12.90%. Despite uncertainties surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, these indices remained resilient. Analysts noted that the technology sector led this upward trend, even though there were signs of weakness in June. Jeff Buckbinder from financial advisory firm LPL Financial highlighted that investors had shifted their focus away from the dominant tech giants toward companies within the AI value chain, particularly those supplying memory chips and data center equipment.

Among the standout performers were semiconductor manufacturers such as SanDisk, whose stock price surged by over 250% in three months, and Western Digital, which saw its shares increase by 136%. Caterpillar, a manufacturer of construction machinery, also benefited from increased demand for data centers, seeing its stock climb by 59% during the same timeframe. On the closing day, the Dow Jones gained 0.26%, reaching another record high, while the Nasdaq rose 1.52%, and the broader S&P 500 added 0.79%. José Torres from Interactive Brokers observed that market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite ongoing uncertainties about the Middle East conflict and U.S.-Iran relations. Oil prices, however, have continued to decline, trading just above levels seen at the beginning of the year.

Meanwhile, the so-called "Magnificent Seven"—a group consisting of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla—has collectively lost over $2.3 trillion in market value. According to reports from *Financial Times*, the combined market capitalization of these tech titans has decreased by approximately 10% in June alone, marking a notable shift in investor preferences. Investors are increasingly redirecting funds towards companies that supply memory chips, storage solutions, and infrastructure for AI systems rather than the tech giants themselves, which have invested heavily in building AI infrastructure. Analysts suggest that skepticism exists regarding whether these large corporations will efficiently convert their massive investments into profits. Additionally, rising costs for essential components, including memory chips, and higher energy and equipment expenses further pressure these companies.

Analysts predict that the demand for memory, particularly RAM, could continue to rise significantly, potentially increasing by up to 40–50% in the coming quarter. Major memory chip producers have already reported sharp increases in both earnings and market valuation. For instance, SanDisk’s stock price has risen by around 760%, while Micron, Intel, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology have all seen their share values increase by more than triple. TSMC, a leading Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturer, has also experienced a roughly 50% increase in its market valuation, pushing its overall worth beyond $2 trillion. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks American semiconductor producers, has surged by 93% in the first half of the year, indicating one of the strongest performances since the dot-com bubble era in 1999.

Despite these positive trends, major U.S. tech companies continue to invest heavily in AI infrastructure. According to *Financial Times* estimates, total spending on data centers for AI could reach nearly $1 trillion. These investments are having ripple effects beyond the technology sector, stimulating demand for steel, electrical equipment, and electricity. In fact, U.S. steel consumption has grown so rapidly that producers are now experiencing shortages of electricity and competing for access to power grids used by data centers they support. These rising costs are gradually being passed on to end consumers, with Apple raising the prices of its MacBook and iPad models by about 20%, and Microsoft increasing the cost of its Xbox consoles. As a result, the AI investment boom is slowly but steadily influencing consumer electronics pricing.

In Japan, analysts forecast that major Japanese companies will achieve record net profits for the sixth consecutive fiscal year. Strong demand for technologies related to AI is expected to offset higher raw material costs and geopolitical uncertainties. Experts from leading Japanese investment banks predict that the competition for constructing AI data centers will continue to drive growth in semiconductor manufacturers, production equipment suppliers, and electronic component producers throughout the fiscal year ending March 2027. SMBC Nikko Securities forecasts that net profits for 250 large companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange will increase by 19.3% in the current fiscal year, largely due to contributions from semiconductor-related businesses. Nomura Securities anticipates an average profit growth of 5.9% for 242 large companies, while Daiwa Securities predicts a 5.1% increase for 210 listed firms. Hikaru Yasuda, head of equity strategy at SMBC Nikko Securities, notes that companies linked to AI and semiconductors are likely to lead profit growth, as negative factors such as high oil prices begin to stabilize. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran in February, which disrupted crude oil deliveries, oil prices spiked sharply. However, recent weeks have seen oil prices return to pre-crisis levels, easing concerns for Japan, which relies heavily on oil imports from the Middle East. The Ormuz Strait, a critical route for global energy shipments, has been a focal point of tension, but recent developments suggest a stabilization in oil prices. Analysts remain cautious, noting that while progress has been made in restoring maritime traffic through the strait, uncertainty persists regarding the full normalization of shipping operations. Large Japanese shipping companies, such as Nippon Yusen and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, still expect lower net profits for the fiscal year ending March 2027, as they based their projections on the assumption that the blockade would persist until late June. Yasuda remarked that the situation in the Middle East is improving, and although there were fears that oil prices might remain elevated, they are now showing signs of stabilization.