Après les élections à la Knesset en Israël, le carré du cercle est de retour

Israeli voters cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, in a parliamentary election that marks the first general vote since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. Early results indicate a historic surge for Arab-Israeli parties, with the Islamic Ra’am party securing seven seats and the Joint List winning twelve, figures representing record highs for these groups. Neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his primary challenger, former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to secure a majority in the 120-seat Knesset based on pre-election estimates. This stalemate forces both camps to seek alliances with smaller factions, raising urgent questions about coalition building and the potential for cooperation between Jewish and Arab representatives. The election is widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s handling of the security collapse that preceded the war in Gaza and the subsequent destruction of the enclave, which drew widespread international condemnation. Netanyahu, seeking a seventh term as prime minister, faces intense scrutiny over his management of the conflict. Eisenkot, who leads the newly formed Yashar party, has positioned himself as a critic of Netanyahu’s strategy, describing the October 7 attacks as the country’s gravest security failure. Eisenkot’s party, established in 2025 after he resigned from Netanyahu’s war cabinet in late 2023, has polled strongly by appealing to concerns over governance and stability. Despite their sharp domestic differences, analysts note that the strategic divergence between the two main contenders regarding foreign policy is limited. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot oppose Palestinian statehood, although Eisenkot has criticized the conduct of the Gaza war. On the issue of Iran, Eisenkot has labeled Netanyahu unfit to launch further operations without ruling out future strikes to prevent nuclear acquisition. Regarding Lebanon and Syria, Eisenkot supports maintaining areas designated as security zones, while his stance on settlement expansion in the West Bank remains ambiguous despite pledges to curb settler violence. Consequently, a change in leadership may alter tactical approaches but is unlikely to shift Israel’s fundamental strategic course in the region. The political landscape is complicated by the unprecedented turnout among Palestinian Israelis. Many previously boycotted elections, viewing the current right-wing government as representative of ethnic cleansing and discrimination. The high participation rate suggests a desire to block four additional years under Netanyahu. Both Ra’am and the Joint List have signaled willingness to cooperate with anti-Netanyahu blocs, prioritizing funding for under-resourced Arab communities, combating crime in Arab neighborhoods, and countering state discrimination. However, the path to such a coalition is fraught with historical precedent and deep-seated skepticism. In 2021, a broad coalition included Naftali Bennett and Mansour Abbas of Ra’am, who governed together for approximately one year before the alliance collapsed. While public accounts often cite a dispute over unleavened bread as the breaking point, underlying tensions centered on occupation and settlement construction. That previous government struggled to ignore these fundamental contradictions, ultimately failing to bridge the gap. Current observers suggest a similar dynamic exists today, with all sides likely attempting to overlook the core territorial disputes in a land stretching from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea. Eisenkot’s candidacy carries personal weight due to the death of his son, Gal, who was killed fighting in Gaza in December 2023. This tragedy has bolstered his popularity, with many voters expressing empathy for his grief. Critics, however, highlight his lack of political experience and limited English proficiency, arguments Netanyahu has used to portray him as vulnerable to international pressure. Conversely, Netanyahu is characterized as bombastic and politically seasoned, coming from an elite academic family. The campaign has focused heavily on accountability for October 7, with Eisenkot pledging a national inquiry into the security failures, a move Netanyahu’s government has rejected. International implications loom large over the outcome. Reports indicate that the United States and Israeli militaries are preparing for potential new strikes against Iran following the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3. The result in Israel will therefore influence the next phase of regional conflicts. The stakes are described as global, particularly given the energy crisis triggered by ongoing hostilities. For the opposition and advocates for a liberal democratic Israel, this election represents a final opportunity to steer the country away from isolation and internal decay. The formation of a government will depend on whether Jewish parties overcome long-standing reservations about partnering with Arab legislators. Pre-election statements from the anti-Netanyahu camp excluded such alliances, yet the arithmetic of the Knesset may force reconsideration. Failure to form a stable coalition could lead to new elections, a scenario that many believe would benefit Netanyahu. The alternative, a continuation of the current administration, is viewed by critics as a disaster that has damaged Israel’s international standing and domestic cohesion over the past four years. As counting concludes, attention turns to the delicate negotiations required to translate electoral mandates into a functioning executive branch.