Le néolibéralisme de gauche: les travailleurs pauvres et le 1% de plus en plus riche

Donald Trump hailed the "great victory" of Brazilian far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the country's presidential election, while predicting a "very close" runoff against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro secured 47.06% of the vote, edging out Lula, who received 45.16%, according to official results released on October 4, 2026. The outcome marks a dramatic shift in Brazil’s political landscape, with Bolsonaro set to face Lula in a decisive second-round election on October 25. Bolsonaro’s narrow lead over Lula, which came as a surprise to many analysts, reflects deepening polarization in Brazil. With more than 140 million registered voters, the race saw a record turnout, though many observers noted a significant portion of the electorate remained undecided. Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, ran on a platform of law-and-order, economic reform, and anti-corruption, appealing to a broad segment of the population disillusioned with traditional political elites. Lula, the former president and current incumbent, had been widely considered the favorite to win outright. However, his campaign faced challenges, including allegations of corruption and a perceived disconnect with working-class voters. Analysts pointed to a growing frustration among Brazilians with rising living costs, endemic debt, and persistent insecurity, factors that Bolsonaro promised to address through stricter policing and deregulation. The result has sparked mixed reactions. While some analysts view Bolsonaro’s victory as a sign of shifting public sentiment toward conservative policies, others warn of the risks associated with a fragmented political landscape. Political scientist Miguel Lago noted that Lula’s chances of reversing the outcome in the runoff are slim, citing the historical rarity of such a reversal in Brazil. Trump, a long-time ally of the Bolsonaro family, expressed confidence in Bolsonaro’s prospects. Speaking at the White House, he called the result a "big victory," emphasizing its closeness despite the margin. He also predicted the runoff would be "very close." This aligns with broader U.S. diplomatic efforts to support right-wing leaders in Latin America, including recent tariffs on Brazilian goods and strained relations with Lula’s administration. Meanwhile, Lula has acknowledged the unexpected loss but remains optimistic about his ability to regain momentum. "The match will begin. We are in extra time, and it is there that we will convince the Brazilian people," he stated. His campaign is focusing on mobilizing disengaged voters and highlighting his record on economic growth and reduced unemployment. The election also highlights broader trends in Brazilian politics. Bolsonaro’s success has bolstered his family’s influence, with several relatives securing legislative positions. His Liberal Party (PL) now holds the largest bloc in the Senate, potentially giving it significant leverage in shaping future legislation. Political commentators have drawn attention to the role of evangelical Christians in Bolsonaro’s appeal, noting that many of his supporters share values aligned with conservative social policies. Experts suggest that this demographic shift could reshape Brazil’s political discourse for years to come. As the country prepares for the runoff, tensions remain high. Lula’s team faces the challenge of rebuilding trust with voters who have grown weary of political stagnation, while Bolsonaro’s campaign seeks to consolidate its early lead. The outcome of the second round will likely determine the direction of Brazil’s governance for the next four years.