ÉLECTIONS LOCALES 2026: cinq sondages à Tshwane donnent à l'AD un avantage dans les négociations de coalition

South Africa’s African National Congress enters the November four local government elections facing a potential historic defeat, with recent polling indicating the ruling party may see its support drop into the mid-thirties percent range. The ANC, which secured sixty-five percent of the vote in the twenty-six municipal elections, recorded forty-point-two percent in the twenty-four national polls. Analysts warn that the upcoming vote serves as a critical test for the liberation movement’s ability to halt its electoral slide before the twenty-nine national elections. If the party fails to regain lost ground, it risks relegation to the opposition benches and eventual political obscurity. The campaign has been marked by internal turmoil and external challenges. The party struggled to field mayoral candidates in certain areas and faced tensions within its tripartite alliance. Public attention was also drawn to the health of Deputy President Paul Mashatile and the physical collapse of Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula following a Constitutional Court judgment that reinstated one hundred eighty-one candidates the ANC had missed registering before the Electoral Commission deadline. Political analyst Wayne Sussman noted that this will be the final local election cycle under President Cyril Ramaphosa’s party leadership, making the outcome vital for the party’s future strategy. He described the recent campaign as difficult, citing public disputes involving former leader Gwede Mantashe and the aforementioned health issues of senior officials. Projections suggest a highly fragmented political landscape where no single party secures an outright majority in major metropolitan areas. The number of hung councils increased from twenty-seven in the sixteen local elections to seventy in twenty-one. Following the twenty-one vote, the Democratic Alliance controlled twenty-four councils, while the Inkatha Freedom Party governed sixteen. Current forecasts indicate the ANC could lose at least six percentage points from its twenty-four baseline. Key battlegrounds such as Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay, Buffalo City, and eThekwini are expected to produce no clear winner. The ANC already sits in opposition in Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay. In Gauteng, the Democratic Alliance holds a strong position against the ANC. In Johannesburg, Markdata projects the DA will lead with thirty-five percent support, compared to the ANC’s twenty-two percent. In Tshwane, the DA is projected to secure thirty-two percent, followed by the ANC at twenty-four percent, the Economic Freedom Fighters at fourteen percent, and ActionSA at eleven percent. The MK Party poses a significant threat in KwaZulu-Natal, where the ANC might fall below thirty percent. While rural support has historically remained resilient for the ANC, the rise of smaller regional parties and ongoing complaints regarding water and electricity supplies threaten to erode this base. Coalition building will likely define the post-election period. Ipsos polling places the ANC at thirty-one percent, the DA at twenty-five percent, the MK Party at fourteen percent, the EFF at eleven percent, ActionSA at six percent, the IFP at three percent, and the Patriotic Alliance at two percent. These figures necessitate multiparty agreements to govern several municipal councils. In Tshwane, five separate polls conducted between June and October consistently placed the DA in first place and the ANC in second. Only one poll from the Social Research Foundation gave the DA more than a third of the vote. Other surveys varied on the ranking of the EFF and ActionSA for third and fourth positions. The Freedom Plus party remains an important player in Tshwane, having traditionally aligned with the DA. Analysis of the aggregated data suggests that a DA-Freedom Plus coalition often holds a slight numerical advantage over an ANC-EFF bloc. However, ActionSA emerges as the pivotal kingmaker capable of tipping the balance toward either side. In some scenarios, a DA-ActionSA-Freedom Plus combination forms a clear majority, while an ANC-EFF-ActionSA grouping requires additional support from smaller parties. One specific projection indicated the current ANC-led coalition was three seats short of a majority, needing assistance from minor parties. Another scenario suggested a DA-ActionSA-Freedom Plus alliance would require similar boosts. Assumptions underlying these calculations generally exclude cooperation between the DA and the EFF or the Patriotic Alliance, as well as any involvement of the MK Party with the major contenders. Despite the statistical margins, analysts caution that differences of five to ten seats could represent statistical noise. The political environment has shifted significantly in the past month, affecting the viability of certain alliances. The proliferation of smaller parties has made it increasingly difficult for any single entity to command power independently, transforming coalition governance from a reactive measure into a standard feature of South African local politics. The final outcome will depend heavily on post-election negotiations among these fragmented factions.