L'opposition s'unit face à un ennemi commun: Netanyahou

Israelis prepare to vote on October 27 in legislative elections that could end the nineteen-year tenure of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Polls indicate a tight race between Netanyahu’s Likud party and the newly formed center-right party Yashar, led by former Army Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. Neither bloc is projected to secure the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset, leaving the outcome dependent on coalition negotiations involving smaller and Arab-led parties. This marks the first national election since the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, and is widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s handling of the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Eisenkot, 66, has positioned himself as the antithesis of the incumbent prime minister. While Netanyahu relies on populist rhetoric and frequent references to his brother Yoni, who died during the 1976 Entebbe rescue mission, Eisenkot emphasizes his direct command experience. He served as IDF Chief of Staff from 2015 to 2019 under Netanyahu’s watch. Eisenkot’s personal loss distinguishes him further; he lost a son and two nephews while they served as soldiers in Gaza. He mentioned this grief briefly in a promotional video released before a recent rally in Guivat Shmuel, near Tel Aviv, stating, "I have lost friends and family. I don't want to lose my state too." Recent surveys show Eisenkot holding a slight edge over Netanyahu. An average of four recent polls gives Yashar approximately 22.5 seats compared to 19.75 for Likud. Individual polls vary slightly, with Channel 12 News placing Eisenkot at 24 seats and Likud at 21, while Channel 13 projects 20 seats for Yashar and 18 for Likud. Despite these individual leads, the broader political blocks remain nearly equal. The opposition Zionist bloc, comprising Yashar, Bennett’s Together party, Lieberman’s Israel Our Home, and the Democrats, averages around 53 to 54 seats. Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious alliance, including Shas, United Torah Judaism, and far-right groups, holds roughly 48 to 50 seats. Consequently, neither side can form a government alone. The opposition block represents a diverse coalition united primarily by their rejection of Netanyahu. It includes traditional right-wing figures, laborists, and radicals from the Meretz party. Candidates from these groups gathered in Tel Aviv’s Rehanim Square earlier in the week to voice anger at what they describe as corruption, unnecessary wars, and the erosion of democracy. Itamar, a voter who previously supported Netanyahu, described the current situation as dragging the country toward becoming a pariah state. Tomer Avital, a candidate for the Democratic coalition, argued that failing to defeat Netanyahu would mark the end of Israeli democracy. The opposition advocates for an independent state inquiry into the October 7 security failures, educational reforms, and mandatory military service for ultra-Orthodox men. Eisenkot’s background contrasts sharply with Netanyahu’s Ashkenazi heritage. Born in Tiberias to a Moroccan-Jewish family, Eisenkot grew up in the peripheral city of Eilat. His pragmatic, military-focused perspective differs from the ideological and religious stances common among other politicians. During his time as army chief, he oversaw the case of soldier Elor Azaria, who was filmed shooting a wounded, unarmed Palestinian man in 2016. Eisenkot insisted on a criminal trial despite pressure from the right to treat Azaria as a martyr. Azaria served nine months in prison, and President Isaac Herzog recently cleared his service record. Despite his moderate image, Eisenkot is not considered a pacifist or leftist. He supports continuing military campaigns against Hamas and Iran and aims to end Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip. His party, Yashar, whose name means straight or honest, campaigns on judicial independence and broader national service. Other opposition figures include Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister and ally of Netanyahu, and Yair Golan, a retired general leading the Democrats, who seeks a two-state solution. Avigdor Lieberman, another former cabinet member turned adversary, runs with the Israel Our Home party. Coalition dynamics suggest that Arab parties may hold the balance of power. These parties average 14 seats, which would bring the opposition total to 67 if they joined forces with the Zionist bloc. However, most Jewish opposition parties have historically rejected cooperation with Arab-led formations. The final decision on who forms the government rests with the Israeli president, who assigns the task to the Knesset member believed most likely to win a confidence vote. Early indications from the vote will determine which candidate earns this mandate. Key issues for voters include responsibility for the October 7 failures, the cost of living, and Israel’s international standing. Netanyahu campaigns on security, using the slogan "No Surrender," arguing that Israel has significantly weakened its adversaries. Critics point to his justice policies and the loss of quality of life within Israel. Young voters, particularly in areas near Gaza, show increased support for far-right parties such as those led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who advocate for expanded settlements in the West Bank and greater control over Palestinian territories. Approximately half a million first-time voters are eligible to participate in this pivotal contest.