L'expert des casinos en ligne: "Croissance à deux chiffres. Le RTP est une valeur théorique"

Italy's online casino sector has continued its robust growth trajectory, with spending increasing significantly in both 2025 and the first half of 2026, according to data from the Agency for Customs and Monopolies. The online casino segment represents the largest portion of remote gambling expenditure in the country, contributing approximately 58.5% of the total betting volume in 2024, which amounted to €92.1 billion out of a total of €157.4 billion. Within this online category, casinos, comprising fixed-odds games and card games, are the dominant segment in terms of spending. The spending for online casinos reached around €3.2 billion in 2025, marking more than a 50% increase compared to sports betting. Monthly figures show further momentum, with December 2025 recording €333.7 million in spending, representing an 18.4% rise over the same period in the previous year. This upward trend persisted into 2026, with June alone seeing €282.7 million in spending, up 14.2% year-on-year. This growth is attributed primarily to two factors. First, there has been a long-term shift in gambling activity from physical venues to digital platforms. Second, the market has expanded due to continuous innovation by game providers who regularly introduce new slots. However, interpreting these figures requires caution. While spending is rising, it does not necessarily indicate an increase in the number of players. It could reflect existing gamblers shifting their activities online and increasing their wagering frequency. The online casino market in Italy is highly concentrated, with major operators dominating the landscape. As of December 2025, Lottomatica led with a 31.1% share of the spending, followed by Sisal at 12.1%. Other notable players include 888, Eurobet, and Betsson. Flutter, a global group encompassing Sisal, Snai, and PokerStars, also holds a prominent position within the Italian market. Regulatory changes have made entry into the market more selective, with 52 licenses issued to 46 operators. Each license comes with a one-time fee of €7 million. Sara Provasi, an expert in the field and editor at sitiscommesse.com, emphasizes the importance of understanding key metrics such as the Return to Player (RTP). The RTP is the theoretical percentage of money returned to players over time. When reviewing a slot machine, she checks technical specifications including the declared RTP, maximum win potential, and volatility if indicated. Most licensed sites offer slots with RTPs ranging from 95% to 97%, although some titles fall below 95%. Fixed-odds games must meet a minimum threshold of 90% RTP excluding jackpots. Despite high RTP values, they do not guarantee wins. The inherent nature of gambling ensures that the margin always favors the operator. RTP serves as a comparative metric for long-term returns rather than a predictor of individual outcomes. Players should be wary of claims suggesting high RTP slots ensure victories, as reputable operators would not make such assurances. There is a substantial difference between slots available on authorized versus unauthorized sites. Games on licensed platforms undergo certification by independent testing agencies, ensuring transparency in RTP disclosure and traceability of payments. Unauthorized sites lack these safeguards, posing greater risks to players.