Le FMI affirme que la croissance mondiale est entravée par la guerre en Iran, mais aidée par l'IA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its 2026 global growth forecast downward, attributing the change primarily to the ongoing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. According to the latest World Economic Outlook report, the global economy is expected to grow by 3 percent in 2026, marking a slight decrease from the previous estimate of 3.1 percent made in April. This adjustment reflects the persistent impact of the energy crisis triggered by the recent escalation in hostilities involving the US, Israel, and Iran. Despite these challenges, the report notes that advancements in artificial intelligence are contributing positively to economic growth, offering some counterbalance to the adverse effects of the conflict.

The energy crisis, exacerbated by the disruption of the critical Strait of Hormuz, has significantly influenced global economic dynamics. Prior to the conflict, the strait accounted for approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade. However, the situation has deteriorated considerably, with shipping volumes drastically reduced due to the heightened security threats posed by Iranian actions. As of recent reports, only 41 verified transits were recorded through the strait on Tuesday, a stark contrast to the approximately 130 daily crossings observed before the conflict began. These disruptions have led to a notable rise in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching nearly $79 per barrel following renewed US military action against Iranian targets.

Despite the negative impacts of the energy crisis, the IMF acknowledges that certain regions and sectors are experiencing resilience. The United States, for instance, continues to lead in terms of economic expansion, projected to grow at a rate of 2.3 percent in 2026. This growth is attributed to several factors including the implementation of tax reforms under former President Donald Trump, increased productivity, and a robust stock market. Additionally, the country benefits from investments in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, which are driving innovation and economic activity.

Meanwhile, the European Union faces more pronounced challenges, particularly the Eurozone, where economic growth is anticipated to slow to 0.9 percent in 2026. This decline is largely influenced by elevated energy costs, which have placed additional strain on both businesses and households within the region. In contrast, China maintains a relatively stable trajectory, with an expected growth rate of 4.6 percent, although this figure represents a minor contraction from the prior year's projection. The Chinese economy is receiving support from government-led infrastructure projects, a resurgence in high-tech manufacturing, and a favorable environment for exports.

Turkey, another significant player in the global economy, has experienced a double revision to its growth projections. Initially forecasting a 4.2 percent growth rate in early 2026, the IMF has adjusted this downward to 2.9 percent, reflecting the adverse effects of rising energy prices and subdued economic activity. Nevertheless, the organization anticipates a recovery, projecting a growth rate of 3.6 percent for 2027, which aligns closely with the earlier April forecast of 3.5 percent.

India, on the other hand, is poised to remain the fastest-growing major economy, with an estimated growth rate of 6.4 percent for 2026. This figure, while lower than the previous year's 7.7 percent, still indicates a strong performance driven by robust consumer spending and continued economic liberalization efforts.

As the situation in the Middle East remains volatile, the IMF's outlook underscores the complex interplay between regional conflicts and global economic health. While the immediate prospects appear cautious, there are indications of gradual recovery, especially in areas benefiting from technological advancement and strategic policy adjustments. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether these positive trends can sustain or if further economic turbulence is on the horizon.