Enquête IFo: la peur de la criminalité est particulièrement forte en Saxe-Anhalt

Residents of Saxony-Anhalt feel significantly more threatened by crime than their counterparts in other parts of Germany, according to a recent survey conducted by the Ifo Institute in Dresden. The study reveals that fear of becoming victims of criminal acts, such as assault or theft, is particularly pronounced in this eastern German state. Similar levels of concern were noted around Chemnitz, while the region surrounding Leipzig recorded the highest anxiety about crime nationwide. The research involved questioning individuals about whether they alter their behavior due to fears of falling victim to criminal activity. In areas such as Leipzig, respondents frequently mentioned avoiding certain locations or changing daily routines to reduce perceived risks. This pattern highlights a growing sense of vulnerability among residents in these regions. Despite the high levels of reported fear, the data from the Ifo Institute indicates that subjective feelings of safety do not always align with actual crime statistics. For instance, the city-states of Berlin, Bremen, and Hamburg have notably higher rates of reported crimes compared to other regions. However, residents in these densely populated urban centers do not necessarily perceive themselves as less safe than others in the country. Moreover, variations in perceived security exist even within regions experiencing similar levels of criminal activity. For example, residents of Schleswig-Holstein experience a relatively high sense of security despite having nearly the same number of crimes per capita as Saxony-Anhalt, where many residents express much greater concerns about crime. Jeyhun Alizade, a political scientist at the Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB), explains that how people perceive crime is influenced not just by personal experiences but also by media coverage and political discourse. He notes that increased reporting on crime can amplify public fears, leading individuals to overestimate the risk of becoming victims. According to the Ifo report, most Germans overestimate the danger posed by crime, despite Germany being one of the safest countries in the world with one of the lowest murder rates. Alizade further suggests that heightened feelings of insecurity could influence political outcomes. Right-wing parties, especially far-right groups, often benefit from public anxieties regarding crime. These parties are typically perceived as more capable in addressing criminal issues. With the upcoming state elections scheduled for Sunday, the findings of the Ifo survey take on added significance. According to Alizade, when people perceive a stronger link between migration and crime, they tend to view immigration as a greater threat. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) capitalizes on this sentiment, intensifying its focus on public concerns related to insecurity. The survey underscores the complex relationship between real crime statistics and public perception, highlighting how societal narratives and political strategies can shape individual fears and responses to crime. As the election approaches, the extent to which these perceptions translate into voting behavior will become increasingly clear.