GCAP: le successeur de l'Eurofighter est-il en cours de développement sans l'Allemagne ?

At the Farnborough Air Show this year, a unique attraction drew crowds of military officers and visitors alike, though it was not a real stealth fighter, but rather a 19-meter-long model of the future combat jet known as GCAP. The display highlighted how far the project has advanced, even though the actual aircraft is still in development. The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), led by Britain, Italy, and Japan, continues to progress smoothly, unlike the failed German-French Future Combat Air System (FCAS) project, which collapsed due to cooperation issues between Airbus and Dassault Aviation. The three nations have been working together since 2022 to develop the next-generation fighter, intended to replace both the Eurofighter and the F-35. In 2024, BAE Systems presented its GCAP concept study during the air show. A joint venture called Edgewing, formed last year by the three countries, is responsible for constructing the aircraft. Each nation holds a one-third stake in the partnership, making GCAP the largest defense project among them. Independent analysts estimate the development costs could reach between 70 and nearly 90 billion euros. The new aircraft is planned for service by 2035. Canada’s recent decision to join the program marks a significant step forward for the alliance. On Tuesday, the three GCAP partners announced their invitation to Ottawa, with Canada’s Defence Minister David McGuinty set to sign a statement in London. However, Canada will initially participate only as an observer, without contributing financially. A more substantial involvement remains possible in the future. Experts view this move as beneficial for the alliance, indicating Canada's shift away from relying solely on U.S.-made fighters such as the F-35. With aging CF-18 Hornets needing replacement, Ottawa is exploring alternatives amid tensions with the Trump administration. A GCAP fighter could serve as a viable option instead of the F-35’s successor. Saudi Arabia has already expressed interest in GCAP, while Japan remains concerned that additional partners might complicate task division and risk the 2035 deadline. Tokyo is wary of China’s military buildup and wants to maintain its commitment to replacing existing F-2 fighters with newer models. Marco Zoff, CEO of Edgewing, emphasized during the air show that the 2035 target remains achievable. “We are confident we can meet the deadline,” he told journalists. “We’re working faster than usual development processes.” He noted the high pressure from all three governments to adhere strictly to schedules and fulfill commitments. Despite hopes in London that Germany might join the effort following the FCAS failure, observers in Berlin consider this unlikely. The German aerospace industry claims a technical leadership role, which the British and Italians are reluctant to acknowledge. This dynamic risks repeating past conflicts similar to those seen with FCAS. More promising, according to some analysts, is Germany’s potential collaboration with Sweden’s Saab to further develop the Gripen fighter. The GCAP initiative extends beyond just a sixth-generation combat jet. It includes capabilities such as drone swarms and AI platforms, positioning the programme as a comprehensive solution for modern aerial warfare. As the project moves forward, the inclusion of new partners and the continued focus on meeting deadlines will shape its trajectory in the coming years.