L'accord de la France avec les pays du Golfe sur le diesel ne rendra pas le carburant "bon marché du jour au lendemain" pour les pays européens

UAE motorists face the prospect of another rise in petrol and diesel prices for November, driven by global oil benchmarks hitting five-month highs and record-breaking shipping costs. The United Arab Emirates Fuel Price Committee is scheduled to announce new retail rates on October 31, following a review of international energy market trends. Brent crude surpassed $110 a barrel for the second time on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session. At one point, the international benchmark traded at $110.86, while US West Texas Intermediate crude reached $99.97, with both contracts gaining more than 1 percent. Other reports placed Brent at $110.4 and WTI at $99.16, reflecting slight variations in trading data. These figures represent a significant jump from earlier in the year, with Brent surging nearly 80 percent since January due to disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict and the war in Ukraine. The immediate concern for drivers is whether the current rally will push prices higher after a substantial increase in October. All three petrol grades saw prices rise by roughly 16 percent from September levels. In October, Super 98 petrol costs Dh4.40 per litre, up from Dh3.80. Special 95 is priced at Dh4.28 per litre, compared to Dh3.69 in September, while E-Plus 91 stands at Dh4.21 per litre, up from Dh3.61. Diesel prices also increased, rising from Dh4.30 in September. This marks a sharp departure from February levels, prior to the escalation of the Middle East conflict. At that time, Super 98 cost Dh2.59, Special 95 was Dh2.48, and E-Plus was Dh2.40, with diesel at Dh2.72. Consequently, current petrol prices are approximately 70 to 75 percent higher than February levels, while diesel is about 76 percent higher. Key factors driving the price hike include persistent security risks in the region and tightening US inventories. Shipping intelligence firm Kpler reported that at least 18 vessels had been attacked over the past two weeks. Analysts noted that Iran is targeting tankers well beyond the Strait of Hormuz, extending threats into the Gulf of Oman. This jeopardizes Gulf crude loadings and the ship-to-ship transfers that support regional exports. Renewed Houthi attacks and strikes on Saudi energy facilities have further heightened concerns. Simultaneously, industry estimates from the American Petroleum Institute indicate declining crude and petroleum product stocks in the United States, providing additional support for higher prices. Despite reports that Gulf oil exports are recovering, these combined pressures have kept Brent crude elevated. A critical component of the current cost structure is the dramatic increase in freight expenses. According to Goldman Sachs, average oil freight costs have climbed from approximately $3 per barrel last year to more than $20. On certain Middle East routes, rates have reached $35 per barrel. The bank attributes this surge to war-risk premiums, higher vessel fuel costs, and the necessity of ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. These transfers allow crude to move between vessels as shipping companies navigate security risks, but they also immobilize tankers, reducing the fleet available for other voyages. Goldman Sachs analysts warned that sustained high freight rates pose an upside risk to their Brent forecasts. Parallel developments in Europe highlight the severity of the global fuel crisis. France has secured deals to purchase diesel from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. French government sources stated that these three Gulf states will sell France the equivalent of 10 percent of its usual diesel consumption in the coming weeks. Saudi Arabia has guaranteed sales of 95,000 tonnes of diesel for both October and November, totaling 190,000 tonnes. The UAE and Bahrain are expected to separately sell 100,000 tonnes of diesel for an unspecified duration. Experts suggest this arrangement will not make fuel "cheap overnight," but it aims to prevent scarcity from driving prices even higher. European diesel prices have reached approximately $200 a barrel, compared to about $80 at the start of 2026. Refined products have rallied more sharply than crude prices this year. The International Energy Agency has warned that diesel shortages could persist well into 2027. European commercial gasoil inventories hit a 25-year low in July, while US diesel stocks reached a 14-year seasonal low by September. Combined gasoil exports from Russia and the Middle East dropped by more than 60 percent, equating to 1.3 million barrels per day. On October 2, G7 leaders pledged to accelerate the IEA's coordinated emergency stock release, prioritizing diesel. Approximately 96 million barrels of the 400 million pledged in March have yet to be released. Analysts estimate that a large release of diesel reserves could lower wholesale prices by $20 to $30 per barrel, translating to a reduction of about €0.10 to €0.15 per litre at the pump. The UAE’s pricing mechanism links domestic retail prices directly to international market conditions through monthly reviews. Therefore, the broader October price trend, rather than a single daily quote, determines the November rates. With ten days remaining until the announcement, the committee will factor in monthly oil averages and other variables. December contracts for Brent averaged around $104.7 per barrel in the first three weeks of October, compared to $101.37 during the same period in September. The market remains sensitive to geopolitical signals, including statements from Iran regarding negotiations with the United States. As long as maritime security risks escalate and inventories remain tight, the pressure on fuel prices is likely to persist. The upcoming decision by the UAE Fuel Price Committee will determine whether the trend of increasing costs continues into the winter season.