Sécheresse, humidité, sécheresse à nouveau: les "mystérieuses" fluctuations de la mousson en Inde menacent les récoltes et l'approvisionnement en électricité

India's monsoon season, typically a lifeline for agriculture and energy production, has taken an unpredictable turn this year, marked by extreme fluctuations between drought and heavy rain. The country is experiencing its most erratic monsoon pattern in recent memory, raising concerns among farmers, power providers, and climate scientists alike. An intensifying El Nino phenomenon, coupled with rising global temperatures, is believed to be behind these shifts, which have already begun to impact food security and electricity generation. The current monsoon cycle began with unusually low rainfall, June recorded the fifth driest such month on historical records, with precipitation nearly 40 percent below average. This initial dry spell left many regions parched, particularly in northern and central parts of the country, where wheat and other staple crops rely heavily on timely rains. However, the situation took a dramatic turn in early July, when a torrential downpour delivered approximately a month’s worth of rain in just seven days. Cities like Mumbai were hit hardest, with streets turning into rivers and infrastructure struggling to cope with the sudden influx of water. Following this intense rainfall, the monsoon has once again entered a phase of relative dormancy. As of Sunday, national rainfall figures stood at about 24 percent below seasonal norms, according to meteorological data. This back-and-forth pattern has created a precarious environment for both rural and urban populations. Farmers, who have long relied on predictable weather cycles to plan planting and harvesting schedules, find themselves caught off guard by these irregularities. “The number of rainy days and how they are distributed used to be smoother,” explained Raghuram Murtugudde, a visiting professor at the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur and an emeritus professor at the University of Maryland. “That’s how farmers developed their crop calendars over the years.” Climate experts warn that such volatility could become the new norm. “Global warming combined with El Nino makes the atmosphere act like a sponge that soaks a lot of water and then pours it all in one place,” Murtugudde added. This analogy highlights the growing concern that the monsoon system is becoming increasingly unstable, potentially leading to more frequent and severe weather extremes. Such conditions pose a direct threat to food production, as delayed or excessive rainfall can damage crops, reduce yields, and increase the risk of pests and diseases. In addition to agricultural challenges, the erratic monsoon has also placed pressure on the nation’s power grid. Hydroelectric dams, which contribute significantly to India’s renewable energy mix, have faced reduced inflows during the prolonged dry spells. This has forced utilities to rely more heavily on coal and gas-fired plants, increasing carbon emissions and straining energy supplies. Meanwhile, the sudden surges in rainfall have led to localized flooding, disrupting transmission lines and causing power outages in some areas. As the monsoon continues its unpredictable course, officials and researchers are calling for greater investment in adaptive strategies. These include improved forecasting systems, better irrigation infrastructure, and policies that support smallholder farmers in adjusting to changing climatic conditions. With the country’s dependence on monsoon rains for nearly half of its annual rainfall, the stakes have never been higher. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether India can navigate this turbulent weather season without suffering lasting economic and social consequences.