Le phénomène électoral du Brésil: Lula fait un retour sans précédent

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva secured a historic fourth term on Sunday, defeating Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a dramatic reversal that defies recent regional trends. With 100 percent of the vote counted, Brazil’s electoral court announced that the 81-year-old leftist leader captured 51.8 percent of the total, edging out his far-right opponent by approximately 4.4 million votes. The result marks the first instance since the end of the military dictatorship in 1985 that the runner-up from the first round went on to win the presidency. The victory comes just two days before Lula’s 81st birthday and concludes a political career spanning nearly four decades. The path to this outcome was fraught with uncertainty following the first round held on October 4. At that time, Flavio Bolsonaro led Lula by 2.2 million votes, capturing 47 percent of the vote compared to Lula’s 45 percent. Most analysts considered Lula’s chances negligible after that initial defeat, noting that no candidate in modern Brazilian history had ever overcome such a deficit in a runoff. However, a massive mobilization effort by the left transformed the subsequent three weeks. Street rallies drew millions of participants, including a crowd exceeding one million on Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana Beach and a large march on Paulista Avenue in Sao Paulo. This surge in engagement contributed to a drop in voter abstention rates, falling from a record 21.08 percent in the first round to 19.21 percent in the second. The election day itself was marked by logistical confusion due to a last-minute decision to extend voting hours by two hours. Both campaigns requested the extension, though Flavio Bolsonaro later cited it as grounds for challenging the result. He argued that municipalities controlled by his faction had attempted to suppress turnout by restricting public transport during the extended period. Late Sunday night, Bolsonaro refused to concede defeat, describing the situation as inexplicable and demanding the annulment of the results. He stated that the outcome was impossible to accept. However, the head of the electoral court, a Supreme Court justice appointed by Bolsonaro’s father, confirmed the validity of the count, stating that the extension did not alter the final margin. Lula celebrated his victory in Sao Paulo, wearing red star-shaped glasses and kissing his wife, First Lady Rosangela da Silva. In a statement posted on social media, he expressed eternal gratitude to the Brazilian people, describing the win as a renewal of commitment to social justice and sovereignty. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin declared that Lula had saved Brazilian democracy for the second time. In Rio de Janeiro, supporters waved red flags and cheered as the result was confirmed, while opponents expressed frustration. Rodrigo Valentim, a 51-year-old business supporter of Bolsonaro, voiced concern that another Lula government would harm the economy, pointing to market reactions during the earlier first-round victory. The outcome has significant implications for the balance of power in Latin America. It leaves Brazil and Mexico, the region’s two most populous nations, under left-of-center leadership. This stands in contrast to a broader trend where right-of-center candidates aligned with US President Donald Trump have won seven consecutive elections in the region over the last 18 months. These include leaders in Colombia, Ecuador, Chile, and Argentina. Trump had hoped that Flavio Bolsonaro would continue this streak, viewing the Bolsonaro family as key allies in restoring American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere. Instead, the victory allows Brazil’s economy, valued at 2.6 trillion dollars annually, to maintain independence from US tariff pressures. For the Bolsonaro family, the defeat carries severe personal consequences. Former President Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. That plot included plans to assassinate Lula and Alckmin. Flavio Bolsonaro had hoped his victory would secure his father’s release and a role in the new government. Now, upon leaving the Senate at the end of January, Flavio will lose his parliamentary immunity for the first time since 2003. With multiple investigations into his activities ongoing, his legal exposure is expected to increase significantly. Lula’s political journey began in the late 1970s when he emerged as a union leader in the industrial suburbs of Sao Paulo. Born into rural poverty, the former factory worker ran unsuccessfully for president in 1989, 1994, and 1998. He finally succeeded in 2002, becoming Brazil’s first elected working-class president. He served two consecutive terms from 2003 to 2010 before stepping down due to constitutional limits. He returned to power in 2023 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in the previous cycle. During his third term, unemployment reached historic lows and inflation remained relatively stable, though voters continued to complain about the cost of living and domestic violence. Looking ahead, Lula faces substantial challenges. The opposition holds a majority in the newly constituted Congress, and the Supreme Court has faced criticism regarding a series of scandals. Investors remain concerned about the budget deficit, exacerbated by Lula’s lavish spending promises during the re-election campaign. Despite these hurdles, Lula indicated in his victory speech that he intends to change his governing methods, acknowledging lessons learned from the election process. He also criticized major digital platforms for alleged foreign interference and tax avoidance, arguing that digital crimes must be treated with the same severity as physical ones. The new term officially begins on January 5, 2027.