Nous ne pouvons que nous attendre à une nouvelle escalade entre les États-Unis et l'Iran.

The United States and Iran have entered a new phase of their conflict following intense aerial exchanges over the weekend, with American military bases in Jordan coming under attack. The strikes resulted in several American soldiers being killed, raising the total number of U.S. military fatalities since the start of the intervention to 17. President Donald Trump has announced further escalation, stating there will be no peace with Tehran. According to military analyst Marinko Ogorec, who commented on HRT, the latest escalation in the U.S.-Iran war, primarily driven by disputes over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, has ruled out any possibility of negotiations for peace. The United States is conducting severe attacks on military targets along the Iranian coast, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is launching ballistic and other projectiles against U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf. Ogorec stated that this outcome was not unexpected, noting that it marks the second round of the war initiated by the Israeli-American coalition, which could have been halted by a memorandum but did not occur. He emphasized that further escalation can be anticipated. Trump has announced plans to destroy military and infrastructure targets throughout Iran in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Iran possesses a large number of missiles used to strike targets in Jordan, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait. These attacks have resulted in casualties among American troops, complicating Trump's political situation ahead of the midterm elections. Ogorec pointed out that the Israeli-American coalition should have considered that Iran could replenish its missiles, as it has done, and still has the capacity for production, which it will continue to utilize in the ongoing conflict. Israel has already declared its readiness to attack Iran if Iranian missiles are directed toward Israeli cities. Such developments could once again lead to an escalation similar to that seen in February. According to Ogorec, Israel's role is crucial. He noted that Israel does not need any pretext and is responsible for initiating all of this. When discussing the American-Israeli aggression against Iran, he explained that the provocation came directly from Israel. Israel benefits from the continuation of the conflict and escalation. How the U.S. will extricate itself remains unclear, but they still lack a fully developed exit strategy. The current situation is entirely contrary to what Trump had previously announced and predicted, repeatedly claiming that a peace agreement with Tehran was nearly reached. Ogorec reflected on earlier diplomatic efforts, mentioning the theatrical and bombastic signing of a memorandum during Trump's dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron. This document served as a solid starting point for potential discussions on a peace agreement within 60 days, but it was not realized. It remains to be seen how far the escalation can proceed. The conflict has intensified due to the strategic interests of both nations, with each side seeking to assert dominance in the region. The involvement of Israel adds another layer of complexity, as its actions often influence the dynamics of the broader regional tensions. The situation underscores the fragile nature of international relations in the Middle East, where historical grievances and geopolitical rivalries frequently intersect. The recent attacks highlight the growing risks associated with the escalating hostilities, with both sides showing little inclination to de-escalate. The military operations have not only resulted in loss of life but have also raised concerns about the stability of the region. As the conflict continues, the international community watches closely, hoping for a resolution that can prevent further bloodshed and restore peace in the area. The ongoing tension between the United States and Iran, exacerbated by the involvement of Israel, presents a complex challenge for global diplomacy. The situation demands careful handling to avoid further destabilization and ensure the safety of civilians in the affected regions. The future course of the conflict will depend largely on the decisions made by key players in the region and the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving a lasting solution.