Se necesitan medidas urgentes para proteger a Somalia de un evento climático potencialmente sin precedentes, advierten los expertos

Experts warn that urgent action is required to safeguard Somalia from what could become one of the most severe weather events in recent history. A multidisciplinary research collaboration led by Cardiff University, involving academics and non-governmental organizations, has raised alarms over the potential impact of the upcoming Deyr season, a secondary, shorter rainy period in the Horn of Africa, usually spanning October to December. This year’s Deyr season is predicted to coincide with both a powerful El Niño and an Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, two major climate phenomena known to drive extreme weather patterns. The combined effect of these conditions could lead to catastrophic flooding, with implications far beyond what was witnessed during the 1997 and 2023 floods. The research, still awaiting peer review, was published as a preprint on Earth ArXiv, highlighting the urgency of the situation. According to the study, the current forecast suggests a stronger likelihood of extreme rainfall compared to the same point in the 2023 season. While the 2023 floods were devastating, with 188 confirmed fatalities, they were less intense than the 1997 event, which saw nearly 2,000 deaths. The researchers emphasize that although the 2023 anticipatory action program, which cost $24 million, helped reduce casualties, it was not tested under conditions equivalent to 1997. They caution that the current level of preparedness may not be sufficient for an even more severe scenario. The 1997 and 2023 Deyr seasons were marked by exceptionally high rainfall and widespread flooding, with the latter benefiting from prior preparations. However, the researchers note that global warming has increased atmospheric moisture levels by approximately 0.7°C since 1997, raising concerns about the potential intensity of future rainfall. Dr. David MacLeod, leading the research from Cardiff University’s School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, stated that while the 2023 efforts showed promise, they must be viewed as a “dress rehearsal” rather than proof of readiness for a larger-scale disaster. He warned that an event matching or surpassing 1997’s severity could have “unprecedented humanitarian consequences.” The research team has collaborated with the Intergovernmental Climate Prediction Centre (ICPAC) to draft a briefing paper aimed at urging donors to increase financial support for flood mitigation programs. Their recommendations include scaling up flexible, front-loaded anticipatory financing, investing in delivery capacity such as logistics and procurement, and enhancing humanitarian access and coordination. They also highlight the need to address declining humanitarian funding, which has dropped significantly since 2023, despite rising operational costs driven by disruptions to regional supply chains, particularly due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The findings underscore the importance of early warning systems and proactive measures in mitigating the effects of extreme weather. While the 2023 program demonstrated the value of anticipatory action, the researchers stress that these systems remain untested against the kind of extreme conditions that could emerge this year. With the Deyr season approaching, the call for immediate and substantial investment in preparedness grows louder. The success of past interventions offers hope, but the stakes have never been higher. As the region braces for what could be its most challenging weather event in decades, the focus is shifting toward ensuring that the tools and resources necessary to respond effectively are fully in place.