Los aranceles atraen, el USMCA empuja: Toyota a Texas

Toyota is shifting a major portion of its Tacoma pickup truck production to Texas, investing $3.6 billion in its San Antonio manufacturing facility and creating 2,000 new jobs. The expansion includes increasing the plant's size by 2.5 million square feet and significantly boosting local production capacity. The move comes amid ongoing trade tensions and policy shifts involving U.S. tariffs and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). President Donald Trump praised the decision, calling it evidence of his administration's tariff policies being effective. The investment represents a substantial commitment to U.S. manufacturing and reflects broader concerns about the composition of automotive supply chains in North America. Toyota's decision to locate the expanded production in Texas suggests a desire to reduce reliance on Mexican manufacturing, which has faced criticism for allowing increased Chinese components to enter the U.S. market indirectly. The U.S. Trade Representative’s 2026 report highlighted these issues, noting that USMCA had not fully achieved its goals of strengthening North American supply chains and increasing regional content in vehicles. The U.S. auto industry has experienced a growing trade deficit with Mexico, rising from $91.9 billion in 2019 to approximately $130 billion annually. Additionally, the percentage of U.S.-origin parts used in vehicles built in Mexico and Canada has dropped sharply, from over 60% in 2017 to around 35% in 2024. These figures underscore concerns about the effectiveness of USMCA in curbing the influx of non-North American components into the region's automotive sector. In response to these challenges, the United States decided not to renew USMCA in its current form on July 1, maintaining the agreement in effect while continuing negotiations. This decision highlights the need to address the shortcomings in the auto sector provisions of the agreement, particularly regarding the control of component sourcing and the prevention of indirect importation of foreign-made parts. Toyota's shift to Texas is viewed as a strategic move to ensure greater oversight of its supply chain and compliance with U.S. regulations. Manufacturing in Texas would bring production closer to key suppliers, regulatory bodies, customs authorities, labor laws, and tax jurisdictions. This proximity could help mitigate risks associated with the integration of foreign components into vehicles assembled in Mexico. While Toyota has not officially attributed its decision solely to U.S. tariffs, reports suggest that the imposition of tariffs significantly impacted its profitability in North America during fiscal 2026. The company reportedly incurred a rare $1.9 billion operating loss in the region, with the overall impact of tariffs estimated at around $9 billion. These financial pressures likely played a role in prompting Toyota to reconsider its manufacturing strategy. The move to Texas aligns with broader trends in the automotive industry, where companies are seeking to enhance supply chain resilience and reduce exposure to geopolitical and economic uncertainties. By relocating production to the United States, Toyota aims to strengthen its position within the North American market while supporting domestic employment and supplier networks. This decision underscores the evolving dynamics of international trade and the influence of policy decisions on corporate strategies.