La rupia se fortalece mientras los inversores se preocupan por la relajación de las perspectivas fiscales

The Indonesian rupiah strengthened by 60 points, or 0.33 percent, to close at Rp17,888 per US dollar on Wednesday, up from Rp17,948 in the previous session. The currency's rise followed eased investor concerns over Indonesia’s fiscal outlook, according to Doo Financial Futures analyst Lukman Leong. Positive sentiment toward the country’s financial position grew after the government reported a budget deficit of 0.76 percent of GDP through June, well within the targeted ceiling of 3 percent for 2026. State revenue reached Rp1,459.4 trillion, approximately US$81.4 billion, which accounts for 46.3 percent of the Rp3,153.6 trillion target set in the 2026 State Budget. This performance was driven by increased economic activity, improved oversight and governance of taxes and customs, and enhanced services across ministries, government agencies, and public service bodies. Tax revenue totaled Rp1,187.8 trillion, or 44.1 percent of the Rp2,693.7 trillion target. This includes Rp1,035.7 trillion collected in taxes, representing 43.9 percent of the Rp2,357.7 trillion target, and Rp152 trillion from customs and excise, or 45.2 percent of the Rp336 trillion target. Non-tax state revenue amounted to Rp271 trillion, or 59 percent of the Rp459.2 trillion target. Meanwhile, state spending reached Rp1,656 trillion, reflecting 43.1 percent of the Rp3,842.7 trillion target and showing a year-on-year growth of 17.8 percent. Central government spending accounted for Rp1,298.6 trillion, or 41.2 percent of the Rp3,149.7 trillion target. Ministry and agency spending reached Rp658.9 trillion, or 43.6 percent of the Rp1,510.5 trillion target, while non-ministry and agency spending stood at Rp639.7 trillion, or 39 percent of the Rp1,639.2 trillion target. Regional transfers were Rp357.4 trillion, or 51.6 percent of the Rp693 trillion target. These figures resulted in a state budget deficit of Rp196.5 trillion, equivalent to 0.76 percent of GDP, while the primary balance showed a surplus of Rp85.1 trillion. Lukman noted that over the past few months, substantial foreign capital had flowed out due to fears that the deficit could exceed 3 percent, with some projections suggesting it might reach 4 percent. Market sentiment was further influenced by expectations of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at the upcoming Bank Indonesia (BI) Board of Governors meeting on Wednesday, July 22. The BI-Rate had last been adjusted in May 2026, marking the first change after remaining at 4.75 percent since September 2025. However, the rupiah had previously weakened, briefly surpassing the Rp18,000 per US dollar level in early June. On June 9, the BI Board of Governors raised the BI-Rate by 25 basis points, helping bring the rupiah back below the Rp18,000 threshold. In its monthly meeting on June 18, BI continued its monetary tightening by increasing the BI-Rate by another 25 basis points, pushing it to 5.75 percent. This series of rate hikes reflects ongoing efforts to manage inflation and stabilize the currency amid evolving economic conditions. The strengthening of the rupiah coincided with broader market trends, including softer US inflation, which contributed to a weaker dollar and indirectly supported the local currency. Investors appeared more confident in Indonesia’s fiscal management, particularly following the recent budget updates and the central bank’s proactive stance on monetary policy. As the BI approaches its next decision, the focus will remain on how further rate adjustments might impact the rupiah and overall economic stability.