La contradicción de una economía que se expande mientras destruye empleo de calidad

Argentina's economy is expanding despite a decline in quality employment, raising concerns among specialists who warn of a growing disconnect between economic growth and job creation. According to the latest data from the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE), activity grew by 1.6% year-on-year in April. This follows a broader trend, with the economy showing a 2.2% annual increase over the first four months of the year. However, this expansion has occurred alongside a sharp drop in registered private-sector jobs. In April alone, salaried employment in the private sector fell by 2.1%, equivalent to 128,600 fewer workers, according to reports from the Ministry of Labor based on the Integrated Social Security System (SIPA). Economist Christian Buteler highlighted the divergence between economic activity and formal employment. He noted that since 2012, the historical correlation between these two factors has broken down. The current economic dynamics show that growth does not necessarily lead to more formal jobs. Buteler pointed out that the data from the EMAE and private salaried employment figures, adjusted for seasonality, reveal a clear decoupling. According to an analysis by the Center for Political Economy of Argentina (CEPA), using data from the Superintendence of Occupational Risks (SRT), the number of registered workers in productive units has decreased by 3.46% since President Javier Milei took office. This represents a loss of 341,396 jobs, reducing the total from 9,857,173 to 9,515,777. That equates to approximately 385 fewer jobs per day. Meanwhile, informal work has grown significantly. Independent work overall increased by 1.8% year-on-year in April, adding 50,100 new workers, according to SIPA data. Within this category, self-employed individuals under the Monotributo system saw a rise of 2.3%, while those under the social Monotributo program increased by 2.4%. Conversely, autonomous workers declined by 1.2%. The increasing rate of informal employment reached 44.2% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the Socio-Labor Monitor report by the Capacity Training and Studies on Work and Development (CETyD) program at the National University of San Martín (Unsam). Despite this shift, the report notes that the majority of newly employed individuals still struggle to meet their income needs. More than 90% of these new workers must put in additional hours to generate sufficient earnings, yet they often fail due to either restrictive terms in dependent employment or limited sales opportunities in independent work. This situation is reflected statistically in rising underemployment rates, indicating that the increase in employment numbers does not represent a positive trend but rather a scenario where necessity compels more people to work longer hours without adequate financial security. In tandem with these developments, there has been a noticeable reduction in businesses during Milei’s administration. Data from the SRT shows that the number of employers dropped from 512,357 in November 2023 to 484,095 in April 2026, representing a contraction of 28,262 companies, approximately 30 per day. This decline reflects a negative trend in the business fabric over the period, as indicated in a CEPA report.