Venezuela is negotiating an indefinite democratic transition under US auspices

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the return of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado to Venezuela is a direct result of ongoing dialogue with the Venezuelan government. This assertion coincides with reports that Machado has returned to the country following an ambiguous social media post in which she declared, "I am here." The developments occur against the backdrop of a third round of negotiations between the Venezuelan government and the opposition, which concluded recently in Caracas. These talks are part of a broader process described by U.S. officials as a gradual political transition under American tutelage. The latest diplomatic engagement took place at a hotel in Caracas, where Jorge Rodriguez, brother of interim President Delcy Rodriguez, shook hands with Dinorah Figueroa after signing an agreement. Figueroa serves as the coordinator for the 2015 National Assembly delegation and is a prominent opposition figure. Following the handshake, both coordinators met with Delcy Rodriguez at the Miraflores Palace. In a statement posted online, Rodriguez noted that he and Figueroa held a meeting with the president after completing the third cycle of conversations. The gesture marked the end of this specific negotiation phase regarding what the United States refers to as a gradual political transition. Despite the progress, key questions remain unanswered. It is unclear whether Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and high-ranking officials in Caracas, who reportedly answer to them, are willing to commit to a schedule leading to elections. According to reporting from The New York Times, no such timeline was addressed during these recent discussions. Jorge Rodriguez currently presides over the National Assembly of the government previously led by Nicolas Maduro. Maduro was captured in January during a U.S. military incursion that resulted in numerous deaths and is now imprisoned in New York. The current administration supports this government structure and has praised its new leader, Delcy Rodriguez. As former vice-president, Rodriguez has been a significant figure in the previous administration’s apparatus for years. Dinorah Figueroa returned from exile in Spain to represent the opposition side. A physician by profession and relatively unknown within Venezuela prior to this role, she assumed the position because she was a deputy in the 2015 legislature, which is recognized as the last body elected through democratic processes. Speaking to a small group of journalists, Figueroa acknowledged the influence of Washington. She stated that she recognizes Marco Rubio as a democratic figure for both the United States and Venezuela. After the meetings, she also visited Delcy Rodriguez at the Miraflores Palace. The interim president acknowledged the efforts of all parties at the negotiating table to advance political guarantees for everyone. However, she criticized dissenting groups, describing them as very small factions that resist change. She alleged that these groups believe they can help Venezuela advance by causing fires or attempting to set the country ablaze and blocking streets. The pace of the conversations appears slow, a factor that could benefit Rodriguez according to the New York Times. When speaking to reporters traveling from Washington, Figueroa mentioned constant advances but avoided providing an estimate for when elections might take place. For Rubio, a Cuban-American politician from Florida, the situation in Venezuela carries personal and domestic political dimensions. Many Venezuelans who fled their country reside in his home state and often criticize him if there are signs he is not working toward democratic change. With an eventual democratic transition in mind, Rubio has proposed a three-stage plan involving stabilization, economic recovery, and political reconciliation in Venezuela. During a meeting with Figueroa in Washington on October 9, Rubio emphasized the need for effort and patience. He stated that achieving a peaceful transition to a solid and lasting democracy would require free and fair elections. While Rubio defended democracy as a senator, he has avoided setting specific deadlines in his capacity as secretary of state. Meanwhile, Donald Trump rarely mentions democracy or human rights. He has repeatedly maintained that the country is not prepared for certain changes, though the exact nature of his stance remains distinct from the formal diplomatic track. The current atmosphere suggests a cautious approach to integrating opposition figures back into the political landscape while maintaining control over the timeline of future electoral processes.