What rejoining the EU single market would mean for the UK economy

The UK economy appears poised to deliver a significant economic boost to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s newly appointed Chancellor, Andy Burnham, ahead of his first major fiscal statement. According to recent economic analysis, rejoining the EU single market could generate a potential £92 billion increase in gross domestic product (GDP). This projection, derived from research conducted by Frontier Economics and commissioned by the advocacy group Best for Britain, suggests that restoring full EU membership could recover up to 90% of the economic damage caused by Brexit. Andy Burnham, who represents the Labour Party’s Manchester Central constituency, has long expressed interest in rejoining the EU. His Makerfield constituency, which narrowly voted in favor of leaving the European Union during the 2016 referendum, has become a focal point for discussions around the future of UK-EU relations. Burnham’s alignment with pro-EU policies has positioned him as a key figure within Labour, particularly as the party seeks to rebuild its political capital following the 2024 general election. Nick Boles, a former Conservative minister turned Labour advisor, has publicly endorsed the idea of rejoining the EU single market. He argues that forming a “European Confederation” could offer many of the advantages of deeper European integration, such as access to the single market and enhanced youth mobility, without requiring the UK to adopt the Euro or fully embrace free movement. Boles claims that such a move would not only bolster the UK economy but also weaken the position of the Conservative Party and the far-right Reform UK, potentially leading to a decisive electoral victory for Labour. Best for Britain, the organization behind the economic study, asserts that public sentiment supports closer ties with the EU. A June 2025 poll by YouGov revealed that 59% of voters favor a stronger UK-European relationship, with 20% opposing it. When specifically asked about rejoining the single market, half of respondents supported the idea, compared to 26% who did not. Tom Brufatto, the executive director of policy and research at Best for Britain, emphasized that the economic gains from rejoining the EU could be substantial, especially for a G7 nation with a global military presence. Despite these optimistic projections, not all economists share the same view. Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM, a global accounting firm, warned that rejoining the EU might not yield the anticipated economic benefits. He pointed out that the exact implications depend heavily on the terms of reentry. If the UK were to return under the previous pre-Brexit arrangements, there could be a net economic gain, though it would not reverse the existing losses from Brexit. Pugh noted that the UK’s economic decline stems from factors such as reduced immigration, decreased foreign direct investment, and diminished trade opportunities. He further cautioned that even with reentry, the UK would likely face challenges in attracting large-scale investment due to competitive conditions in countries like Ireland. Additionally, while trade benefits could be realized, they would be limited by the relatively small size of the UK’s manufacturing sector. Pugh suggested that rejoining the single market might serve more as a symbolic gesture than a transformative economic strategy. Deutsche Bank has also weighed in, stating that rejoining the single market would primarily reduce economic inefficiencies introduced by Brexit. With 41% of the UK’s exports destined for EU nations in 2025, the removal of regulatory barriers could streamline trade and enhance economic performance. However, the bank acknowledged that the broader economic impact would depend on how effectively the UK can navigate the complexities of reintegration.