Trump wants to be friends with Kim - but South Korea could pay the price

US President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision to significantly scale back joint military exercises with South Korea has raised concerns among regional allies and strained the US-South Korea alliance. The Ulchi Freedom Shield drills, involving 18,000 South Korean troops and forces from 11 other allied nations, ended prematurely on Friday with only half of the planned activities completed. This came just days after Trump directed the Pentagon to “substantially reduce” the exercise, calling it “inappropriate and hostile” toward North Korea and costly to the United States. The move surprised many of Trump’s allies, including South Korea, which had not been informed of the plan beforehand. South Korea’s Foreign Minister Cho Hyun attempted to frame the reduction as a mutual decision, though he acknowledged that officials were unaware of Trump’s intentions to cut the exercise in advance. The decision has unsettled other regional partners such as Japan and Taiwan, both of whom rely heavily on US security assurances in the region. Trump has previously criticized South Korea for not participating in military actions against Iran and has expressed expectations of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong Un later this year. While South Korea supports improved relations between Trump and Kim, it does not want such diplomatic efforts to involve financial or military demands related to Iran. The annual military exercises between the US and South Korea are considered central to their strategic partnership and serve as a demonstration of America’s commitment to defending South Korea from potential threats from North Korea. Traditionally, these exercises have been adjusted or suspended to encourage dialogue with Pyongyang. However, Trump’s unilateral and sudden decision to withdraw US troops earlier than planned has undermined trust in the US as a reliable ally, according to Jo Bee-yun, a Senior Research Fellow at the Atlantic Council. There are growing fears that Trump might further reduce the number of US troops stationed in South Korea or even abandon the policy of pursuing North Korea’s denuclearization without consulting its ally. The Korean Peninsula remains technically at war, as neither side signed a formal peace treaty following the Korean War. While reunification with the South was once a cornerstone of North Korea’s ideology, Kim Jong Un shifted away from this goal in 2024. Despite this change, North Korea continues to pose threats to the South. Just days before the military exercises began, North Korea launched ballistic missiles toward Japan and reiterated its stance that it reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if its territory is perceived as being under threat. Additional missile tests occurred on Thursday, adding to the tension in the region. A more pressing issue for South Korea is the convergence of security and trade concerns within the Trump administration. Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with South Korea’s refusal to participate in the conflict in Iran and has also voiced complaints about trade practices. His administration has criticized South Korea for not adequately compensating the US for hosting 27,000 American troops on its soil, for delaying investments totaling $350 billion, and for allegedly favoring domestic businesses over foreign ones. As trade disputes evolve into matters of national security, some analysts suggest that South Korea should consider reducing its dependence on the United States. Cheong Seong-chang, vice-president of the Sejong Institute think tank and a proponent of South Korea developing its own nuclear capabilities, argues that while maintaining the alliance with the US is crucial, Seoul should also pursue its own nuclear deterrent. Although public support for a nuclear-armed South Korea exists, the government maintains that possessing nuclear weapons is unnecessary and potentially damaging to its international relationships. This perspective could shift if the US continues to disengage from the Asian region. As tensions persist, South Korea seeks to navigate the complex landscape of shifting alliances and emerging threats. The country aims to balance its strategic partnerships while ensuring its own security and economic interests remain protected.