Last polls for Florida governor and who wins the 2026 election.

Byron Donalds, a Republican congressman representing Florida's 19th district, appears poised to dominate the state's gubernatorial race, according to recent polls released this week. The data suggests he holds a commanding lead in the upcoming primary election scheduled for August 18, 2026, and maintains a narrow advantage over Democratic candidate David Jolly should the general election take place in November of the same year. These findings come amid a growing political spotlight on Florida, a key battleground state in national elections. The primary contest will determine which Republican candidate faces Jolly in the general election. According to the average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics, Donalds leads his closest rival, former state senator James Fishback, by 39 percentage points. This gap underscores Donalds' strong position within the party, particularly given the early stage of the campaign. A recent survey conducted by Cygnal between July 12 and 13 among 500 likely Republican primary voters confirmed Donalds' dominance, though it noted that a significant portion of respondents had yet to decide their preference. Cygnal’s poll highlighted that while Donalds currently enjoys a clear edge due to name recognition, other candidates still have room to grow as the campaign progresses. The firm emphasized that the dynamic nature of the race could shift depending on how well lesser-known contenders gain visibility and support. This factor may influence the eventual outcome of the primary, although Donalds remains the frontrunner. Looking ahead to the general election, the landscape becomes more competitive. Polling averages suggest that Donalds holds a slim lead over Jolly, with the latest survey from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab showing him five points ahead. Conducted between July 8 and 17 among 848 likely voters, the study indicated that the race is far closer than previous midterm contests in the state. Sean Freeder, director of the university’s public opinion lab, pointed out that such tight margins are typical during mid-term elections, especially when the incumbent president’s party faces challenges in maintaining its electoral strength. He noted that the current polling aligns with historical trends observed in similar races. Beyond the direct matchup between Donalds and Jolly, the broader political climate in Florida was also assessed in the survey. It measured the approval ratings of prominent national Republicans, including Governor Ron DeSantis, Senator Marco Rubio, Senator JD Vance, and former President Donald Trump. Each of these figures showed varying levels of support depending on demographic groups and regional preferences within the state. David Jolly has been actively campaigning across Florida, emphasizing themes of economic growth and infrastructure development. His campaign has focused on positioning himself as a viable alternative to the Republican establishment, leveraging concerns about rising costs and job creation. Meanwhile, Donalds has maintained a steady presence in both national and local media, reinforcing his credentials as a fiscal conservative and advocate for limited government. As the campaign season unfolds, both candidates are expected to intensify their outreach efforts. The primary election in August will serve as a critical test for Donalds, determining whether he can solidify his position before facing Jolly in November. With the stakes high and the political environment evolving rapidly, the coming months will provide further clarity on who might emerge victorious in Florida’s pivotal gubernatorial race.