Thanks to Trump's war, Dems successfully co-opt 'America First'

Former Representative Mike Rogers is gaining ground on Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate race, according to a new poll released by the Alliance for a Better Future. The survey, conducted between October 6 and 8, 2026, shows Rogers holding a two-point lead with 46 percent support compared to El-Sayed’s 44 percent. This result marks a notable shift from a previous tracking poll taken in September, where El-Sayed led by one point. Rogers gained three points in the interim, while El-Sayed remained static. The organization attributed Rogers’ recent surge partly to voter perception regarding artificial intelligence security. A memo accompanying the data noted that when voters viewed a specific advertisement supporting Rogers, the hypothetical ballot split moved in his favor. That predicted change appeared to materialize in the actual numbers over the following two weeks. Rogers recently stated he would prioritize passing a national security framework for AI. This stance aligns with survey findings indicating that 81 percent of respondents desire further federal regulation of the technology. The Alliance for a Better Future spent seven figures on television and digital advertising in September to promote Rogers’ position on AI. Despite this latest data, the broader polling landscape remains contested. The RealClearPolitics average currently shows El-Sayed leading Rogers by 2.7 percentage points. The race has become increasingly focused on the concept of "America First," a slogan originally associated with President Donald Trump’s 2024 victory and the subsequent Republican takeover of the Senate. El-Sayed told NBC’s Meet the Press on October 11 that many voters who supported Trump previously are now backing him due to his focus on healthcare and domestic priorities. He described himself as truly America First, contrasting his platform with his opponent. Central to this political maneuvering is the ongoing conflict with Iran. The war has negatively impacted Republican candidates, prompting Rogers to adopt a more cautious tone. Last month, Rogers declared that the war with Iran needed to end quickly. In August, he requested that the Israel lobby group AIPAC cease running advertisements supporting his candidacy, fearing the association might damage his electoral prospects, though he later reversed that decision. El-Sayed has capitalized on this sentiment, telling Detroit Public Radio in May that he lacks AIPAC support. He argued that tax dollars should fund domestic healthcare and education rather than military aid to Israel, which he linked to regional violence. Similar dynamics are playing out in other states. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek challenges incumbent Senator Joni Ernst, who holds endorsements from Trump and Senator Tom Cotton. Turek criticized Ernst for voting in favor of the Iran war multiple times. As a state representative and self-described prairie populist, Turek argued that a true America First approach requires focusing on citizens rather than foreign conflicts. He cited daily costs of the conflict as evidence against such engagements. The RealClearPolitics average shows Turek leading Ernst by one point. In Nebraska, independent candidate Dan Osborn faces incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts, another Trump-endorsed official. Osborn, a Navy veteran and labor union leader, rejected the idea that Ricketts puts America first, arguing instead that the administration prioritizes Israel. He claimed Ricketts voted against ending the Iran war thirteen times, noting that the Senate considered fourteen War Powers Act resolutions on the subject. Osborn emphasized that undermining military independence for allies is unacceptable. In Wisconsin’s third district, Democrat Rebecca Cooke battles incumbent Representative Derrick Van Orden, whom Trump labeled an America First warrior. Cooke highlighted the Iran war as a key issue affecting voter sentiment. These races illustrate a broader trend where Democrats and independents are adopting the America First rhetoric to challenge Republicans who campaigned under that banner two years ago. The shifting alliances and policy positions reflect the complex interplay between foreign policy disputes and domestic economic concerns in the upcoming elections.