El Niño Could Be Strongest on Record: How 2026 Compares

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center has raised the likelihood that this year’s El Niño will become the strongest since 1950, with more than a 90% chance of reaching “very strong” intensity during the fall and winter of 2026–27. The latest update from federal forecasters highlights growing confidence in the event’s potential to rival historical El Niño peaks, such as those observed in 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16. El Niño, part of the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, involves warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. These changes influence global weather patterns, typically bringing increased rainfall to the southern United States, particularly along the Gulf Coast and Southeast, while leading to warmer and drier conditions in the northern U.S. and Canada. Forecasters have noted that the current event is showing signs of intensification, with a 69% chance that conditions between October and December could reach “historic” levels, possibly exceeding all previously recorded El Niño events since 1950. Historical comparisons suggest that the current El Niño could match or even surpass the strength of past extreme events. The 1982–83 and 1997–98 El Niños were among the most intense, causing widespread flooding, landslides, and severe weather disruptions. Similarly, the 2015–16 El Niño was deemed “on par” with these earlier events, contributing to droughts in regions like the Caribbean and Ethiopia, and influencing hurricane activity in the central North Pacific. It also played a role in pushing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to new highs at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. Despite these precedents, experts caution that not all El Niños behave identically. For example, the 2015–16 season saw unusual outcomes, such as warmer and drier conditions in California despite the overall strength of the event, while the Pacific Northwest experienced wetter weather. This variability underscores the complexity of predicting El Niño impacts, as factors beyond mere strength, such as regional atmospheric circulation patterns, play a critical role in determining local weather effects. AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tyler Roys emphasized that the current event has a high chance of setting a new record for strength, though he acknowledged that the exact magnitude and timing remain subject to ongoing monitoring. Lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok noted that the intensifying climate signal suggests a stronger southern branch of the jet stream could develop, leading to wetter conditions across much of the southern U.S. and a lower frequency of named storms in the Atlantic Basin. These developments align with historical trends, where strong El Niños often bring more frequent and intense winter storms to the southeastern United States. For the U.S., NOAA indicates that El Niño’s most consistent impacts occur during the colder months, from October through March. Historically, a majority of El Niño events have brought above-average precipitation to the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida. In contrast, precipitation in California and the Southwest tends to correlate more directly with the strength of an El Niño event, with the most powerful ones historically associated with the greatest relief from drought. However, the relationship between El Niño and seasonal weather patterns is not always straightforward, and variations can occur based on other climatic factors. Globally, a super El Niño carries the potential to trigger widespread weather anomalies, affecting agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems worldwide. As the event continues to develop, scientists and forecasters will closely monitor ocean temperatures, atmospheric pressures, and wind patterns to refine their predictions and better understand the implications of this potentially record-breaking El Niño.