Super El Niño and 3 Other Factors Threatening Global Food Prices

Africa braces for severe weather as El Niño strengthens A powerful El Niño phenomenon is gaining momentum in the Pacific Ocean, raising concerns about its potential impact across the continent. According to the latest outlook from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is more than a 90% chance that this El Niño will develop into one of the strongest on record during the Northern Hemisphere’s autumn and winter of 2026/27. The forecast suggests a 69% probability that the event will surpass the intensity of any El Niño since 1950, posing a serious challenge for the African continent, which faces increasing climate-related threats. The effects of this developing El Niño are expected to vary significantly across different regions. Southern Africa may experience extreme heat and drought, while East Africa could see heavy rainfall and flooding. Dr. Henno Havenga, a climatologist at North-West University, explained that although the term "super El Niño" is commonly used, it lacks formal scientific definition. He noted that El Niño occurs when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific becomes unusually warm, altering atmospheric circulation and influencing weather patterns far beyond the Pacific through teleconnections. However, Havenga emphasized that El Niño affects probabilities rather than guarantees specific outcomes, underscoring the continued importance of weather variability. The agricultural sector is among the most vulnerable to the impacts of this intensified weather pattern. In Southern Africa, farmers may face reduced rainfall and higher temperatures, leading to drought conditions that threaten food production. Small-scale and subsistence farmers, who lack access to insurance or irrigation, are especially at risk. Havenga warned that such droughts could result in both food and income crises, disproportionately impacting communities reliant on local harvests and village markets. Water security is also under threat, as hot, dry weather increases demand while supplies dwindle. Local governments are urged to maintain treated water systems and encourage conservation efforts to mitigate losses. Beyond agriculture, the consequences of a strong El Niño extend to public health, energy systems, and ecosystems. Extreme heat poses risks for outdoor workers and vulnerable populations, while both drought and flooding can affect water quality and disease transmission. Hydropower-dependent countries may face power shortages due to decreased rainfall, compounding the need for cooling amid rising temperatures. Natural ecosystems are also at risk, with drought contributing to wildfires and resource scarcity for wildlife. In Latin America, similar challenges are emerging. A recent incident in Bolivia saw heavy snowfall bury livestock and disrupt rural livelihoods, highlighting the broader impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Experts warn that extreme temperatures and precipitation patterns during critical growing seasons are causing crop failures and threatening food security. According to a report by international organizations, over 2.1 billion people globally faced moderate to severe food insecurity in 2025, with rural communities and small producers bearing the brunt. Lena Savelli, director of the World Food Programme’s regional office, noted that factors such as field conditions, market prices, and household purchasing power determine food security. She warned that droughts and excessive rain could reduce yields of key crops like maize, beans, rice, cocoa, and coffee, driving up prices and limiting dietary variety for low-income families. As El Niño is expected to intensify in the second half of the year, several countries have declared emergencies. In El Salvador, nearly 6.9 million quintals of maize, beans, and sorghum, representing 100% of the August and September planting, are at risk due to drought. Around 100,000 hectares of crops and grazing land in Chiapas, Mexico, have been affected by prolonged dry spells.