Ukraine: Zelenskyy says war looks set to go on into winter

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that his country could target Russia's civilian aviation infrastructure with drone attacks, potentially disrupting air travel over Russian territory. This comes amid ongoing Ukrainian strikes against Russian energy facilities, military bases, and oil refineries, which have already caused economic strain within Russia. The warning raises concerns about how international airlines might respond and whether such threats could further destabilize Russia’s economy. The Ukrainian military has been using long-range drones, including models similar to the An-196 Ljutyj, to conduct precision strikes on critical infrastructure in Russia. These attacks have primarily focused on oil refineries, fuel storage tanks, and logistics hubs, targets that are both highly flammable and difficult to protect. Previous strikes have disrupted supply chains and contributed to fuel shortages, particularly during periods of high demand such as summer holidays and harvest seasons. In August, these attacks triggered a second wave of gasoline shortages, compounding existing economic pressures. Zelenskyy’s recent comments suggest that the focus of Ukrainian strategy may be shifting toward targeting Russia’s civil aviation systems. While he did not explicitly confirm plans to attack airports or air traffic control centers, he implied that the sheer volume of drone attacks could lead to de facto closure of Russian airspace. His remarks were met with immediate condemnation from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who called them an “announcement of state terrorism” and threatened to abandon peace negotiations altogether. Historical precedents indicate that attacking aviation infrastructure is not straightforward. For example, Iran has conducted repeated drone attacks on Gulf and Middle Eastern airports, yet these efforts have generally resulted in temporary disruptions rather than permanent damage. Airports typically resume operations quickly after such incidents, even following direct hits. A similar pattern emerged in May when Ukrainian drones targeted a key air traffic coordination hub near Rostov-on-Don. Although several airports had to close temporarily, the overall impact was limited, akin to routine closures during regular drone alerts. Despite this, Zelenskyy appears to be leveraging the threat of such attacks to pressure foreign airlines operating in Russian airspace. International carriers, particularly Chinese, Arab, and Indian airlines, benefit significantly from access to Russian routes, which remain largely closed to European and American competitors. Whether these airlines will alter their flight paths or avoid Russian airspace due to potential risks remains uncertain. However, any shift in routing could have substantial economic implications for Russia, which relies heavily on its domestic aviation network for both commercial and strategic purposes. Russian authorities have taken steps to bolster the protection of critical infrastructure, especially energy systems. Power grids are vital to both public life and industrial activity, making them a potential target for future Ukrainian strikes. Moscow has reportedly increased security measures around major power plants and transmission lines, though the effectiveness of these defenses remains unclear. Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict continues to strain Russia’s resources, complicating efforts to maintain uninterrupted service to its population and industries. As the situation evolves, the international community watches closely. The potential escalation into aviation targets adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile geopolitical landscape. With both sides showing little willingness to compromise, the risk of further economic and infrastructural damage looms large. The outcome of this new phase in the conflict will depend on the decisions made by both Ukrainian and Russian leadership, as well as the responses of global airlines and governments.