The chance for peace in Ukraine will not be here forever

The possibility of peace in Ukraine will not last forever, according to an analysis published recently. The war has now entered its fifth year, surpassing many significant conflicts of the past century in duration. The question remains: will this conflict ever end, and who might be able to bring about an end to it?

According to one perspective, the war is not being sustained solely by President Vladimir Putin’s delusion of total victory. Even efforts by European and American powers to achieve long-term peace through diplomatic negotiations could be seen as an illusion. The reality is that even if the chance for lasting peace were minimal, we should not miss the opportunity for a meaningful ceasefire.

In this era of asymmetric power dynamics, where influence stems less from size or wealth than from the ability to transform imbalance into leverage, modern warfare has evolved into "special operations." No major power can be considered strong if it cannot achieve its goals within a matter of weeks. This was demonstrated when former U.S. President Donald Trump managed to achieve results in Venezuela but failed in Iran. Today, peace is nothing more than a frozen uncertainty, and we often overlook how the nature of war has changed, thus altering the nature of peace itself.

This context brings particular attention to an open letter from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The letter highlights the complex geopolitical landscape and the challenges faced by both sides in achieving a resolution to the ongoing conflict. It underscores the need for international engagement and the importance of recognizing the evolving dynamics of global power structures.

As the focus shifts back to Ukraine following developments in the Middle East, analysts suggest that the international community's capacity to address multiple crises simultaneously is limited. With the prolonged Russian aggression against Ukraine and the critical importance of the Strait of Hormuz to global energy and trade, Ukraine has been sidelined as a secondary concern compared to other pressing issues. However, once agreements are reached in the Middle East, there is a noticeable shift in attention back towards Ukraine, particularly as tensions escalate between Israel and Iran.

The risk of the war in Ukraine becoming a forgotten conflict while global attention increasingly turns to the crisis between Israel and Iran is real. The outcome depends largely on the dynamics of negotiations between Iran and the United States. If the international community waits for American negotiators to resolve peace plans with Iran before addressing Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, precious time could be lost. As noted since 2025, freezing the battlefield would be the initial step, and anything else seems unrealistic. An irrational war becomes increasingly irrational over time.

Achieving peace in Ukraine without direct talks between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky appears unlikely. From the example of Iran, it is clear that everything can be halted, as demonstrated by the digital signing of a memorandum, which led to a more serious ceasefire, perhaps even a simple freeze of the situation. The key issue remains whether a meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine can yield results and whether either side has genuine intent for such a meeting. It is evident that a ceasefire or peace requires Putin’s willingness, as he is the instigator of the war and thus capable of stopping it. However, problems then arise, as the entire time, a way to present a victory must be sought. We see in the case of Iran that precisely this is the key to everything.