Who wins the 2026 elections in Brazil? This is how the polls are between Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula today

Brazil’s presidential race has entered its most intense phase ahead of October elections, with polls showing a tight contest between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his former ally, Flavio Bolsonaro. According to the latest survey conducted by Nexus/BTG Pactual, released this week, both candidates stand virtually tied, with Lula securing 46% of voter intent compared to Bolsonaro’s 45%. The poll, which surveyed 2,002 individuals between July 31 and August 2, carries a margin of error of two percentage points, reinforcing the uncertainty surrounding the outcome. This result marks a notable shift from earlier data. A previous survey from July 27 showed Lula maintaining a four-point lead over Bolsonaro, with 47% versus 43%. Now, the gap has narrowed significantly, creating a technical tie that challenges the dominance of the ruling party. Analysts suggest that the political landscape is evolving rapidly, with neither candidate able to secure a clear majority, potentially leading to a runoff election. In the first-round scenario, Lula currently holds 41% of support, followed by Senator from the Liberal Party with 37%. This positions him slightly ahead of his rival, though the difference is minimal. Other contenders include former governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado, who stands at 5%, and Renan Santos and Romeu Zema, each with 4% and 3% respectively. Under Brazil’s electoral system, similar to Argentina’s, the requirement to achieve more than 50% of valid votes to avoid a second round appears increasingly unlikely, heightening expectations for a highly competitive runoff. Lula was officially announced as the candidate for the Workers' Party last Sunday, during a ceremony emphasizing his government plans. He pledged to boost strategic investments in defense and ensure the protection of Brazil’s natural resources. His campaign has focused on economic recovery and social welfare, drawing on his popularity among working-class voters. Flavio Bolsonaro, meanwhile, formally launched his candidacy on July 25 at a large gathering in São Paulo organized by the Liberal Party. The event featured a strong political atmosphere and included the presence of Argentine President Javier Milei as a guest speaker. Bolsonaro’s campaign highlights his father’s legacy, positioning himself as a defender of traditional values and law-and-order policies. His appeal seems strongest among conservative and religious demographics, a trend reflected in recent polling data. The upcoming survey by Quaest, set to release results on Wednesday, is anticipated to add further complexity to the race. This new study will examine the influence of religion, a key factor in Brazilian politics, as well as other potential variables that could sway public opinion. Unlike the July survey by Genial/Quaest, which placed Lula at 40% against Bolsonaro’s 28%, the latest findings indicate a more balanced competition. As the campaign intensifies, both candidates are likely to focus on mobilizing their base while addressing broader concerns such as inflation, security, and healthcare. With the October elections approaching, the race remains unpredictable, and the final outcome will depend on how effectively each side can connect with voters in the coming weeks.