What the polls say today: PP and Vox lead the progressive bloc by 15 points while the left continues to negotiate

Spain’s general elections, scheduled for November 29, will see voters head to the polls following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s announcement of an early election on October 5. These elections open a new political landscape marked by parliamentary tensions over recent months. Campaigning officially begins on November 13, but parties have already begun their efforts, with initial surveys offering a preliminary snapshot of an unusually open scenario. The Basque Country, which has 1.824.886 registered voters, including 70.571 young people eligible to vote for the first time since the last general elections, holds particular significance due to its influence on Spain’s overall governance. With each seat potentially decisive, the region’s political dynamics are under close scrutiny. According to preliminary estimates, EH Bildu appears poised for growth, potentially securing seven seats in the Congress of Deputies, two more than in the 2023 elections. The PNV would retain five seats, while the PSOE could lose one, ending up with four. The PP would maintain its two seats, and Sumar would disappear from the Basque electoral map. Vox, meanwhile, is unlikely to gain representation again, having previously received around 30,000 votes in 2023, equivalent to 2.6% of the total. These survey results remain indicative of voter intention and do not guarantee final outcomes. Electoral campaigns, candidate debates, and the ability of parties to mobilize their supporters can significantly alter these figures. In addition to the Basque Country, national polling data shows a shift in momentum. According to the average of surveys compiled by elDiario.es, the PP and Vox currently lead the progressive bloc by approximately 15 percentage points. The PP is estimated at around 32%, followed by the PSOE at 26%, Vox at 19%, Sumar at 6%, and Podemos at 3%. These numbers reflect ongoing negotiations among left-wing forces, who have yet to finalize alliances. The Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) has had a distinct effect on the average calculations used by RTVE. Unlike other polling firms, the CIS consistently predicts a stronger performance for the PSOE and weaker results for the PP. This discrepancy has influenced the RTVE average, pushing the PP down nearly 0.6 percentage points and lifting the PSOE by over 0.6 points. The impact of the CIS diminishes over time, particularly as more surveys are incorporated into the calculation. The influence of the CIS is less pronounced on smaller parties such as Vox, Sumar, and Podemos. For example, the latest CIS survey only slightly reduced Vox’s projected share of the vote by a tenth of a point, bringing it to 18.7%. The effect on Podemos and Sumar was minimal, with changes of just 0.02 and 0.03 percentage points respectively. On the left, coalition talks have stalled due to territorial disputes and leadership disagreements. The unified leftist candidacy for the Senate has been put on hold amid difficulties in resolving regional differences. Negotiations for the Congress of Deputies have consumed much of the effort, leaving the Senate campaign sidelined. Internal divisions within leftist groups have further complicated matters. Podemos has attempted to negotiate partial agreements with IU in several regions outside of Madrid and Barcelona, where it seeks to maintain separate candidacies. However, this approach has drawn criticism from IU, which views it as an attempt to bypass its national leadership. Despite these tensions, some local agreements have been reached, such as in the Canary Islands, where multiple leftist parties have formed a joint list. Meanwhile, Ada Colau, leader of the Front de Ampla, has taken responsibility for leading the alliance without Podemos, emphasizing the need for unity against right-wing forces. She has called for broader alliances, including figures like Gabriel Rufián, to build a cohesive anti-fascist front. As the election approaches, the political landscape remains fluid. While the PP and Vox appear to hold an advantage in current polling, the outcome will depend heavily on how effectively leftist forces can consolidate their positions and whether the PSOE can regain lost ground. The coming weeks will be critical in shaping the final configuration of alliances and voter preferences before the November 29 ballot.