One of Elon Musk's discarded SpaceX rockets will crash into the moon at 5,400 mph next week - and is set to carve out a new crater on the lunar surface

A SpaceX rocket, once used to launch two lunar landers, is set to collide with the moon at a blistering speed of 5,400 mph on Wednesday, creating a new crater on the lunar surface. This event marks another instance of space debris posing unexpected challenges as humanity expands its presence beyond Earth. The rocket’s upper stage, which launched the landers in January 2025, has drifted through space since then and is now on a trajectory that will result in an unintentional impact. Experts predict the collision will release energy equivalent to three tons of TNT, generating a plume of dust and debris that will be observable by scientific instruments and amateur observers. The impact site is expected to be near Einstein Crater on the moon’s sunlit western limb, making it accessible to telescopes stationed on Earth and orbiting satellites. Bill Gray, a space tracking expert, estimates the velocity of the impact at approximately 5,400 mph, roughly seven times the speed of sound. He noted that while the event itself might be too faint to see with the naked eye, the resulting ejecta could linger in space for several minutes, providing valuable data on the behavior of lunar regolith under such conditions. Gray plans to monitor the aftermath from New Brunswick, Canada, where he expects optimal viewing conditions due to the timing of the event. This incident underscores the increasing challenge of managing orbital debris as more missions venture beyond Earth. The rocket, which was never intended to strike the moon, could have been redirected into a solar orbit if minor adjustments had been made. However, such maneuvers require resources and planning that are often overlooked in the rush to achieve mission objectives. This will not be the first time a defunct rocket has struck the moon. In 2022, a segment of a Chinese rocket created two craters on the lunar far side. These incidents highlight the broader issue of space junk accumulating in orbits around celestial bodies. As commercial and governmental agencies continue to explore the moon, the risk of unintended collisions grows. The impact will be observed by multiple spacecraft, including NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter. Danuri is scheduled to pass within a mile or two of the rocket just two minutes before the collision, allowing for close-up imaging of the object prior to impact. Scientists hope these images will help assess the extent of damage caused by the collision and provide insights into the potential hazards posed by similar events in the future. Los Alamos National Laboratory’s Benjamin Fernando explained that the resulting crater is expected to measure nearly 90 feet across and 16 feet deep. While too small to be visible from Earth, it will be detectable by orbiting satellites. Fernando emphasized the importance of studying such impacts, particularly as future missions plan to establish a sustained human presence on the moon. The rocket, measuring about 40 feet long and weighing approximately 10,000 pounds, successfully transported two private landers. One, Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost, achieved a historic first by landing safely on the moon. The other, operated by Japan-based ispace, suffered a failure. These outcomes reflect the risks inherent in early-stage lunar exploration. As nations and private companies race to return humans to the moon, the need for improved debris management becomes increasingly urgent. The upcoming impact serves as a reminder of the complexities involved in space operations and the necessity for better tracking systems to prevent accidental collisions. With both the United States and China aiming to send astronauts back to the moon in the coming years, ensuring safe navigation through the lunar environment will be critical.