Can Ukraine continue the war without American help? Three ways Trump can put pressure on Kiev

Relations between Washington and Kyiv have deteriorated sharply after US President Donald Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of refusing to negotiate an end to the war. Ukraine has simultaneously warned that the United States is withholding critical military support while Russian attacks continue. Although the Trump administration halted approval of new aid packages at the start of 2025, Kyiv continued fighting with assistance from European allies and accelerated development of its own defense industry. However, questions remain regarding how dependent Ukraine still is on Washington and whether it can sustain operations without American backing. An analysis cited by CNN indicates that the US retains three primary instruments of pressure on Ukraine: economic, military, and political leverage. According to data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany, the United States provided at least $131.5 billion in aid to Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion in 2022, maintaining its status as the largest individual donor. In contrast, European states and EU institutions collectively allocated at least $228.5 billion. Major providers of military aid include Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden, with significant contributions also coming from the United Kingdom and Norway. Despite this financial shift, European partners often purchase large portions of their weaponry directly from the US. Consequently, the transfer of these systems to Ukraine still requires Pentagon approval. This dependency is particularly acute regarding interceptor missiles for the Patriot air defense system, one of the few systems capable of intercepting Russian ballistic projectiles. Zelensky has warned that deliveries of already agreed-upon missiles are delayed. Last week, Ukraine was left without Patriot interceptor missiles, rendering it significantly more vulnerable to Russian strikes. During one recent attack on Kyiv, no ballistic missiles were intercepted, indicating critically low stock levels. Beyond hardware, Ukraine remains heavily reliant on American technology and intelligence. Key assets include early warning systems for rocket attacks and the military version of satellite internet known as Starshield. Zelensky claimed that Ukraine failed to receive American warnings about incoming ballistic attacks on multiple occasions, preventing air raid sirens from sounding in time. Ukrainian officials stated this contributed to higher civilian casualties. While the Trump administration and the State Department denied restricting intelligence sharing, and Zelensky later confirmed cooperation had resumed, Ukrainian officials assert that restrictions on Starshield continue to hinder military operations, including drone interception efforts. Elon Musk stated that decisions regarding the speed and usage of these systems are made by the US military and the president. Trump dismissed responsibility for such limitations. Addressing the situation, Zelensky told CNN that if Ukraine could not obtain Starshield at normal speeds for defense, it would survive and remain strong. Max Bergmann of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argued that cutting off access to American systems could have devastating consequences for Ukraine, including major economic damage and additional civilian deaths. Nevertheless, he doubted such measures would break Ukrainian will to resist. Experts warn that worsening relations carry broader political implications. This month, the Trump administration postponed the implementation of new sanctions against Russia and allowed the export of Russian diesel, even as Moscow did not abandon maximalist demands for ending the war. Natia Sescuria of the UK-based institute RUSI believes that American pressure on Kyiv gives the Kremlin hope that prolonged conflict will eventually weaken European determination to assist Ukraine. Similar views suggest that diplomatic friction serves to embolden Russian strategic calculations. The geopolitical landscape remains tense as Europe steps into a larger financing role but struggles to replace specific American technological capabilities. The reliance on US-manufactured weapons creates a bottleneck where European funds do not automatically translate into immediate battlefield capability due to regulatory approvals in Washington. Meanwhile, the debate over intelligence sharing highlights the fragility of trust between the two capitals. Zelensky’s public statements aim to project resilience despite logistical hurdles, emphasizing that Ukraine can endure reduced support levels. Conversely, analysts point to the potential for long-term erosion of Western unity if internal disputes persist. The current standoff underscores the complex interplay between financial resources, technological dependencies, and diplomatic signaling in modern warfare. As Russian attacks persist, the effectiveness of Ukrainian defenses hinges on the resolution of these administrative and political frictions. The outcome of these negotiations will likely determine the trajectory of the conflict in the coming months. Both sides maintain firm positions, with Washington citing national security interests and Kyiv stressing survival imperatives. The situation continues to evolve with each passing day, keeping global attention focused on the Eastern Front.