Milan is getting warmer: by the end of the century more than 5 degrees more and up to 120 tropical nights a year

Milano is facing a dramatic shift in its climate, with projections indicating temperatures could rise by more than five degrees Celsius by the end of the century. According to the Local Climate Profile developed by the city’s administration, which incorporates the latest climate models, average temperatures in Milan will continue to increase significantly over the coming decades. By 2050, the city could see an increase of more than three degrees, and by the end of the century, more than five degrees compared to the reference period of 1985–2014. The data was presented during a council committee meeting and highlights a particularly pronounced impact during summer months. Thermal anomalies could reach up to seven degrees, leading to a radical change in urban weather conditions. Projections suggest that within about fifty years, approximately 336 days per year might experience temperatures markedly different from current averages for the same periods. One of the most visible effects will be the increasing number of so-called tropical nights, nights when the minimum temperature does not drop below 20 degrees Celsius. Around 2050, Milan could see an average of between 80 and 90 such nights annually. By the end of the century, this number could surpass 120, with up to 70–80 nights featuring minimum temperatures above 25 degrees. These conditions will make nighttime recovery increasingly difficult, especially for the elderly, children, and other vulnerable groups. Heatwave alerts have already become a reality. In the heat wave bulletin issued by the Ministry of Health, monitoring 27 Italian cities, Milan has been placed among centers with a red alert. On July 17, there will be 16 cities with the maximum level of risk for the entire population. Besides Milan, the list includes Bologna, Brescia, Bari, Campobasso, Florence, Frosinone, Genoa, Latina, Palermo, Perugia, Pescara, Rieti, Rome, Turin, and Viterbo. A red alert indicates intense heat conditions with potential negative health impacts not only for vulnerable individuals but for the general population. For Florence, the maximum alert has been active continuously since July 9, while for Perugia since July 10. For Milan, it marks the first day of the red alert in this third heatwave of the year. Facing a scenario likely to worsen, the city is focusing on transforming its urban space. One key strategy involves de-paving certain areas, especially those most exposed to heat risks, aiming to reduce the urban heat island effect and enhance the city's ability to absorb heavy rains, which are becoming more frequent and often cause flooding. “The we have a de-paving plan that we’ve been working on throughout our mandate,” explained Elena Grandi, the city’s environmental and green spaces deputy mayor. She noted the challenges in implementing these interventions. “Each location involves negotiations and dissatisfaction because there is always a portion of people who would like to keep parking cars as before or to drive on roads.” The city has identified 27 new areas for de-paving: some projects have already been completed, others are underway, and more will be realized in the coming years, along with interventions replacing illegal parking with tree-lined sidewalks. “The goal is to build a sponge city,” concluded Grandi, “capable of absorbing intense meteorological phenomena, such as the rains that cause flooding, but also of mitigating the effects of urban heat islands.” This transformation is deemed necessary by the administration, as climate change is no longer a future scenario but a condition with which Milan must already contend.