A test of nationalist right, German AfD victory echoes across Europe

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has secured its best-ever result in a state election, winning 43.8 percent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, according to preliminary counts. This marks a dramatic increase from its 2021 share and gives the party 39 of 83 seats, just three short of a majority needed to govern alone. The result signals a significant shift in German politics, with implications extending beyond the state’s borders. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) suffered a sharp decline, capturing only 17.2 percent of the vote and 15 seats. Turnout reached 77.8 percent, up from 60.3 percent in 2021. The AfD’s success reflects broader dissatisfaction with the political establishment, particularly regarding migration policy and economic stagnation. The party’s platform includes stricter immigration controls, ending aid to Ukraine, and withdrawing from the eurozone. According to Infratest dimap’s provisional voter-transfer analysis, approximately 170,000 AfD votes came from new voters, while 82,000 were from former CDU supporters. The AfD also surpassed the CDU in perceived economic competence, gaining 30 percent approval to the CDU’s 28 percent. These gains suggest a growing appeal among voters disillusioned with mainstream parties. Despite these advances, the AfD faces challenges in forming a government. The party’s regional branch in Saxony-Anhalt is classified as a confirmed right-wing extremist organization by the state’s domestic intelligence service, though the AfD disputes this designation. With 39 seats in an 83-seat legislature, the AfD lacks the majority required to govern independently. The CDU, SPD, and Greens collectively hold 31 seats, while the Left holds eight and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) holds five. However, the CDU has ruled out coalition with the Left, complicating efforts to build a governing majority. The AfD’s rise also raises concerns about foreign policy. While 57 percent of voters supported the party’s stance against further German weapons shipments to Ukraine, 48 percent still viewed Russia as a serious threat to German security. This suggests a complex relationship between public sentiment and geopolitical alignment. Germany’s federal government remains committed to supporting Ukraine, having provided or earmarked €57.6 billion in military aid since Russia’s full-scale invasion began. Saxony-Anhalt’s voters, however, have shown a preference for economic stability over ideological alignment with Russia. The AfD’s victory has drawn mixed reactions from international figures. U.S. President Donald Trump shared a screenshot of the projected results on his social media platform, while Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev praised the party’s focus on controlling migration and distancing Germany from Western alliances. Austrian far-right leader Herbert Kickl likened the result to the winds of freedom blowing through Germany since 1989. Conversely, European leaders have expressed alarm. France’s Europe minister, Benjamin Haddad, called the result a “grave moment in Europe,” while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk dismissed the victory as a sign of “idiots or traitors.” The AfD’s platform includes measures such as “remigration,” which critics interpret as mass deportation, and proposals to segregate children of refugees in schools. The party also advocates for revising history curricula to reduce emphasis on the Third Reich and banning rainbow flags in educational settings. These policies have sparked controversy, with Germany’s culture minister condemning the AfD’s rhetoric as harmful to societal cohesion. The AfD’s success in Saxony-Anhalt represents a milestone in its 13-year history. It is the first time the party has come close to achieving an outright majority in a state election. However, the party’s ability to govern remains uncertain. While some smaller parties, including BSW, may join a coalition, the CDU has ruled out cooperation with the AfD. The party’s leader, Ulrich Siegmund, has called for a “political turnaround” and criticized Chancellor Merz for failing to address public grievances. Despite these tensions, the AfD’s victory underscores a deepening divide in German society and poses a challenge to the country’s post-war political framework.