The current El Niño is expected to be of a 'historic' magnitude, with very severe climatic consequences

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that an El Niño event of unprecedented strength is currently underway in the tropical Pacific, with projections indicating it will persist through at least February 2027. This development marks one of the most intense El Niño phenomena observed in modern times, with significant implications for global weather patterns, including heightened risks of extreme heat, drought, and flooding. The WMO stated that the event is "firmly established" and continues to intensify, suggesting it will reach "very strong" levels by the end of the year. According to the WMO, the likelihood of El Niño continuing beyond February 2027 is now nearly 100 percent, an unprecedented level of certainty for the organization. This follows a series of assessments from meteorological agencies including Météo-France, the British Met Office, and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), all of which have highlighted the unusual strength of the current event. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have already exceeded average levels by more than 2.6 degrees Celsius, with even greater warmth detected beneath the surface in certain regions. The WMO noted that the current El Niño is taking place amid a broader context of rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions. While El Niño itself is a natural climate cycle, the existing higher baseline temperatures may exacerbate its effects. The WMO head, Celeste Saulo, emphasized that the current situation represents a "supersized" El Niño, with the potential to impact weather systems globally. The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years, but the current iteration appears to be more severe than historical records suggest. The WMO has indicated that the El Niño event is expected to peak around the end of 2026, though its climatic effects are anticipated to extend into 2027. These effects include altered rainfall patterns, with some regions facing increased precipitation while others encounter prolonged droughts. For instance, areas such as Australia, Indonesia, and parts of the Amazon may face drier conditions, whereas East Africa and the southern United States might see heavier rainfall. The WMO also warned that the event could contribute to record-breaking global temperatures, with 2027 possibly becoming the warmest year on record. The current El Niño is not just a surface-level phenomenon; it involves substantial heat accumulation beneath the ocean's surface. In some parts of the Pacific, subsurface temperatures during July and early August were more than 8 degrees Celsius above normal. This heat reservoir contributes to the ongoing intensification of the El Niño event, reinforcing the WMO's confidence in its persistence through early 2027. Experts warn that the consequences of this El Niño could be profound, affecting both human populations and ecosystems. The WMO has called for "exceptional preparation and response" given the scale of the event, noting that it has the potential to disrupt communities and economies worldwide. As the event unfolds, meteorologists and climate scientists will continue to monitor its progression and assess its impact on regional and global weather systems.