The Super Niño threatens to flood the coasts: the sea could rise up to 30 cm and the tension in Latin America grows

The Super El Niño phenomenon is currently driving Pacific sea levels up to 40 centimeters above normal values, prompting leading marine researchers to issue warnings regarding catastrophic coastal flooding and severe erosion stretching from Alaska to Chile. Satellite measurements from the United States space agency NASA indicate that water levels in the eastern Pacific have already risen by 30 to 40 centimeters over baseline figures. This surge has created a massive bubble of warmed water in the open ocean, which now threatens coastlines across North and South America. Experts estimate that the peak intensity of this unprecedented climate event will arrive between November and December, coinciding with maximum water temperatures. Along the Pacific coast, the risk of extreme high-water events could increase tenfold during this period. In southern California, a succession of cyclones and hurricanes from the eastern Pacific generated powerful swells that battered the coastline throughout the summer. In Malibu, the ocean carved out a sinkhole, while waves destroyed a home in Dana Point. Local authorities ordered evacuations or restricted occupancy for 16 additional properties. Damage also extended to Carlsbad, a city north of San Diego with a population of 112,000. There, Tamarack Beach lost much of its sand in a very short time, and water advanced into a parking lot that had previously been situated near the beach. This erosion poses a specific threat to the local economy, as the municipality derives 14 percent of its operating budget from taxes linked to hotel accommodations. Oceanographer Michael Jacox from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stated that the first Kelvin wave associated with the current El Niño episode was scheduled to reach California in early October. Specialists also warned about atmospheric rivers, storms capable of causing floods and accelerating the erosion of beaches and cliffs. Patrick Barnard, research director at the Center for Coastal Climate Resilience at the University of California, Santa Cruz, described the situation as aligning for an epic winter in terms of potential dangers. He noted that all factors are amplified by climate change. In response to these threats, California declared a preventive state of emergency to facilitate the mobilization of resources and response teams. Across Latin America, the effects are equally pronounced. In Ecuador, heavy rains partially associated with the advance of El Niño triggered new emergencies during October. The National Secretariat for Risk Management reported floods and river overflows in the provinces of Los Ríos, Guayas, and El Oro. In Guayaquil, nearly 50 sectors recorded water accumulation, and in the locality of Tenguel, river overflow allowed water to enter homes. Authorities suspended in-person classes in educational institutions across five affected provinces due to flooding or access difficulties. A national red alert has been in effect since August 29. In Argentina, the impact is visible at Iguazu Falls. With more than 1.5 million visitors on the Argentine side in 2025, marking the annual peak since the pandemic, the falls are one of the region's main tourist attractions. Intense rainfall in the Brazilian borderlands recently raised the flow of the Iguazu River to over 12,000 cubic meters per second, a level ten times higher than the average. These images circulated globally and led to the closure of several walkways and tourist areas on both sides of the border. While some visitors managed to see extraordinary views, the scene underscores the impact of the Super Niño, which has affected the region since early August. Thomas Monahan, an ocean researcher at Oxford University, emphasized the global scale of the threat. He stated that along the coast from Mexico to Ecuador, the predicted Super El Niño of 2026 and 2027 could temporarily raise sea levels by an amount equivalent to four or five decades of projected sea-level rise within a single season. The strongest rises are being recorded near the equator. On the Galapagos Islands, sea levels are climbing 24 to 40 centimeters above average, threatening nesting sites and causing extreme flooding. For coastal areas in Peru and Ecuador, increases of up to 33 centimeters have been measured, posing risks of severe coastal erosion and town inundation. Conversely, Indonesia and northern Australia face sea-level drops of 15 to 20 centimeters, increasing drought and fire hazards. Forecasts point to an aggravation of these effects during the final months of 2026 and the beginning of 2027, exposing millions of people to the consequences.