Institute for Population Research: What keeps people from child warfare

A new study by Germany's Federal Institute for Population Research reveals that many Germans would prefer to have more children than they actually do, highlighting a growing gap between aspirations and reality. The research, based on data from the Family Demographic Panel (FReDA), indicates that while the average desired number of children among respondents remains around 1.8 per woman and 1.6 per man, the actual birth rate has continued its decline since 2021, falling to 1.32 children per woman as of late 2025. This discrepancy underscores deepening concerns over family planning in the country. The study, conducted twice annually with approximately 30,000 participants, shows that nearly 90 percent of respondents want to have children, and in an ideal scenario without obstacles, most would aim for about 2.2 children. However, this fertility gap, defined as the difference between desired and actual childbearing, has grown significantly. According to Martin Bujard, deputy director of the institute, the gap is now at its highest level since the beginning of the four-year decline in birth rates. Participants generally view the conditions for raising a family as somewhat positive, citing sufficient childcare spots and opportunities for nature-based relaxation. Yet these factors are overshadowed by anxieties related to career prospects, income levels, and housing market pressures. Only 22 to 29 percent of respondents expressed satisfaction with the availability of housing, marking the lowest satisfaction rate across all surveyed areas. Those who feel content with their jobs and living situations are more likely to plan for a child within the next three years, particularly women, according to Carmen Friedrich, one of the researchers involved in the study. Among the various concerns affecting family planning, worries about war stand out as the most significant factor. Eighty-five percent of respondents expressed concern or severe concern regarding potential conflicts, with this issue having the strongest impact on reducing fertility intentions. Concerns about the stability of democracy in Germany follow closely behind, showing a notable increase compared to the previous year. Climate change continues to be perceived as a threat by young adults, though its influence on fertility intentions appears less pronounced than other factors. The analysis suggests that individuals deeply worried about the future of democracy or climate change tend to express lower fertility desires, affecting both men and women. Anxiety over war primarily influences men’s family planning decisions, possibly due to their eligibility for military service and heightened sensitivity to such issues. Overall, these future-oriented concerns appear to reduce fertility intentions by roughly ten percent among those who experience them intensely. While multiple crises impacting younger generations are not unprecedented, such as the Cold War and environmental degradation during the 1970s and 1980s, the current situation stands apart due to the simultaneous occurrence of several major challenges. These ongoing issues remain constantly present in public discourse, diverting attention from the often-positive local conditions that exist in many areas. Bujard notes that constant media coverage of these crises keeps people preoccupied, potentially overshadowing the practical aspects of family life. Another contributing factor to the narrowing gap between desired and actual birth rates is biological limitations. While individuals can delay their childbearing plans for several years, fertility eventually declines due to natural physiological constraints. This aspect further complicates long-term family planning efforts amidst the backdrop of persistent societal uncertainties.