A new climate scenario threatens Croatia: Disasters could come one after another
The article discusses a study published in the journal 'Nature' which reconstructed 16 major flood events across Europe between 1342 and 1343, highlighting that extreme floods can occur frequently and consecutively, a pattern often overlooked in modern risk assessments. The researcher Petra Petrić, from the University of Zagreb's Faculty of Philosophy, compares historical flood patterns to recent events like those in 1999, 2002, 2005, 2006, and 2013, suggesting that such frequent flooding could happen within two years. While modern Europe has improved infrastructure and early warning systems, Petrić warns that climate risks are increasing faster than societal preparedness. In Croatia, the 2023 Mura and Drava floods demonstrated strong mobilization but highlighted vulnerabilities in handling multiple consecutive disasters. The article also notes Croatia’s experience with record low water levels this summer due to prolonged drought, high temperatures, and early snowmelt, emphasizing the need for cross-border cooperation in managing river basin risks.
A prominent Croatian historian has warned that the country faces a growing risk of multiple extreme weather events occurring in quick succession, rather than isolated disasters. Hrvoje Petrić, a professor at the Faculty of Philosophy in Zagreb and founder of the Department of Ecohistory, highlighted this concern following the publication of an international study published in Nature examining catastrophic flooding across Europe in the 14th century. The research revealed that instead of experiencing one major flood event, Europe endured a series of 16 large-scale floods between the end of 1341 and the end of 1343. Four of these were deemed exceptionally rare, with recurrence intervals estimated to span several centuries. The findings suggest that today’s climate risk assessments often fail to account for the possibility of multiple extreme events occurring within a short timeframe. Petrić emphasized that such scenarios, where floods could follow each other over months or even years, are rarely considered in current planning and management strategies. He pointed to the Magdalens Flood in late July 1342 as the largest known flood in Central Europe in the last millennium, underscoring how historical patterns might inform modern preparedness efforts. Petrić participated in the multi-year study led by Andrea Kiss from Vienna Technical University, which brought together experts from 18 countries. His contribution focused on reconstructing long-term data on floods along the Danube River and its tributaries. He compared the frequency and intensity of the medieval floods to recent European events, noting that if similar conditions occurred today, they would resemble a sequence of major floods, such as those in 1999, 2002, 2005, 2006, and 2013, all happening within less than two years. Despite advancements in forecasting systems, early warning mechanisms, communication networks, infrastructure, and civil protection capabilities, Petrić cautioned that climate risks are rising faster than societal readiness and adaptation measures can keep pace. He noted that the European Environment Agency has concluded that climate-related threats are increasing more rapidly than the capacity to respond effectively. In Croatia, the issue takes on particular urgency given the country's geographical position and the transnational nature of its major rivers. Petrić avoided making a simple assessment of whether Croatia is adequately prepared for such events, pointing instead to the successful response to the floods in the Mura and Danube rivers in August 2023. While this demonstrated strong mobilization capabilities, he argued that overcoming a single disaster does not necessarily indicate how well the system would handle repeated crises before recovery had begun. Croatia’s rivers, the Drava, Sava, and Danube, form part of larger, cross-border river basins. Petrić stressed that managing flood risks requires cooperation beyond national borders, as water does not respect political boundaries. This necessitates coordinated action at the level of entire river basins, rather than individual states. This summer, however, Croatia faced the opposite extreme: record-low water levels. On August 19, the Drava reached a new all-time low of minus 194 centimeters in Osijek, while the Danube dropped below its previous record low near Batinja, set back in 1909. These unprecedented lows were attributed to prolonged drought, high temperatures, and early snowmelt in upstream areas of the river basins. Petrić warned that while river regulation and hydropower plants offer benefits in flood prevention, erosion control, irrigation, and drainage, their reservoirs cannot compensate for months-long water shortages. He cited the case of Virovitica-Podravina County, which has developed advanced irrigation systems yet still declared a state of natural disaster due to drought on August 21. “Irrigation is important,” he explained, “but it depends on available water, and agricultural resilience also depends on soil quality, crop type, farming practices, groundwater availability, and broader landscape management.” He further noted that rainfall within Croatia alone is not always the decisive factor for the water levels of major rivers like the Drava, Sava, and Danube. Instead, the entire basin must be taken into account, including contributions from surrounding regions and countries. This underscores the need for integrated, cooperative approaches to water management and climate adaptation, particularly in light of increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather patterns.
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