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'Don't plan for just one major disaster'
Croatia🏛️ PoliticsCenter8/29/2026

'Don't plan for just one major disaster'

Historian Hrvoje Petrić warns Croatia that climate risk assessments must consider multiple extreme events occurring in short succession, not just single large disasters. This follows an international study published in Nature revealing that Europe experienced 16 major flood events between 1341 and 1343, including four exceptionally rare occurrences with return periods spanning centuries. Petrić emphasizes that current risk management strategies often overlook such cascading scenarios. He compares these historical events to modern European floods, suggesting that if recent major floods had occurred within two years, it would mirror the intensity seen in the 14th century. While modern Europe has improved infrastructure and early warning systems, Petrić cautions that climate risks are rising faster than societal preparedness. In Croatia, he highlights the transnational nature of rivers like the Danube, Sava, and Drava, stressing that managing flood risks requires cooperation across borders rather than national boundaries. Meanwhile, Croatia faces the opposite extreme this summer, with record-low water levels on the Drava River.

A prominent Croatian historian has warned that the country faces a growing risk of multiple extreme weather events occurring in quick succession, rather than isolated disasters. Hrvoje Petrić, a professor at the Faculty of Philosophy in Zagreb and founder of the Department of Ecohistory, highlighted this concern following the publication of an international study published in Nature examining catastrophic flooding across Europe in the 14th century. The research revealed that instead of experiencing one major flood event, Europe endured a series of 16 large-scale floods between the end of 1341 and the end of 1343. Four of these were deemed exceptionally rare, with recurrence intervals estimated to span several centuries. The findings suggest that today’s climate risk assessments often fail to account for the possibility of multiple extreme events occurring within a short timeframe. Petrić emphasized that such scenarios, where floods could follow each other over months or even years, are rarely considered in current planning and management strategies. He pointed to the Magdalens Flood in late July 1342 as the largest known flood in Central Europe in the last millennium, underscoring how historical patterns might inform modern preparedness efforts. Petrić participated in the multi-year study led by Andrea Kiss from Vienna Technical University, which brought together experts from 18 countries. His contribution focused on reconstructing long-term data on floods along the Danube River and its tributaries. He compared the frequency and intensity of the medieval floods to recent European events, noting that if similar conditions occurred today, they would resemble a sequence of major floods, such as those in 1999, 2002, 2005, 2006, and 2013, all happening within less than two years. Despite advancements in forecasting systems, early warning mechanisms, communication networks, infrastructure, and civil protection capabilities, Petrić cautioned that climate risks are rising faster than societal readiness and adaptation measures can keep pace. He noted that the European Environment Agency has concluded that climate-related threats are increasing more rapidly than the capacity to respond effectively. In Croatia, the issue takes on particular urgency given the country's geographical position and the transnational nature of its major rivers. Petrić avoided making a simple assessment of whether Croatia is adequately prepared for such events, pointing instead to the successful response to the floods in the Mura and Danube rivers in August 2023. While this demonstrated strong mobilization capabilities, he argued that overcoming a single disaster does not necessarily indicate how well the system would handle repeated crises before recovery had begun. Croatia’s rivers, the Drava, Sava, and Danube, form part of larger, cross-border river basins. Petrić stressed that managing flood risks requires cooperation beyond national borders, as water does not respect political boundaries. This necessitates coordinated action at the level of entire river basins, rather than individual states. This summer, however, Croatia faced the opposite extreme: record-low water levels. On August 19, the Drava reached a new all-time low of minus 194 centimeters in Osijek, while the Danube dropped below its previous record low near Batinja, set back in 1909. These unprecedented lows were attributed to prolonged drought, high temperatures, and early snowmelt in upstream areas of the river basins. Petrić warned that while river regulation and hydropower plants offer benefits in flood prevention, erosion control, irrigation, and drainage, their reservoirs cannot compensate for months-long water shortages. He cited the case of Virovitica-Podravina County, which has developed advanced irrigation systems yet still declared a state of natural disaster due to drought on August 21. “Irrigation is important,” he explained, “but it depends on available water, and agricultural resilience also depends on soil quality, crop type, farming practices, groundwater availability, and broader landscape management.” He further noted that rainfall within Croatia alone is not always the decisive factor for the water levels of major rivers like the Drava, Sava, and Danube. Instead, the entire basin must be taken into account, including contributions from surrounding regions and countries. This underscores the need for integrated, cooperative approaches to water management and climate adaptation, particularly in light of increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather patterns.

How this report was made. Objective News wrote this report from 6 source articles, using AI-assisted synthesis under our methodology. It is our own text, not a copy of any single outlet. Read our methodology.

Responsible editor: Matej BašaSpotted an error? Report it

6 reports

Index.hr logoIndex.hrIndependentCenterFactual 99Objective 978/29/2026
A major investigation has revealed an extreme threat.

Povjesničar Hrvoje Petrić, s Filozofskog fakulteta Sveučilišta u Zagrebu, upozorava na potencijalnu ekstremnu prijetnju koja može uključivati niz uzastopnih katastrofala u Europi, prema rezultatima međunarodnog istraživanja objavljenog u časopisu Nature. Istraživanje analizira katastrofalne poplave 1342. i 1343. godine, koje su bile dio niza 16 velikih poplava u tom periodu, s nekoliko od njih vrlo ekstremnih. Petrić naglašava da su današnje procjene rizika neispunjene jer ne uzimaju u obzir mogućnost uzastopnih katastrofa. On također ističe da Hrvatska, iako pokazala sposobnost mobilizacije tokom poplave 2023., nije spremna za više uzastopne ekstreme zbog transnacionalnog karaktera glavnih rijeka kao što su Drava, Sava i Dunav. U ljeto 2024. Hrvatska je također suočila s ekstremnim niskim vodostajima na Dravi.

Bias read (Center): The article presents historical research findings and expert analysis regarding climate risks and flood patterns, without overtly promoting any political agenda. While the implications for national preparedness are discussed, the tone remains academic and balanced, focusing on scientific evidence. H

Why factuality (99): The article provides a comprehensive summary of the research, accurately reflecting the key findings including the frequency and severity of the 14th-century floods. It correctly cites the study in Nature and attributes quotes directly to Petrić, ensuring fidelity to the original research.

Why objectivity (97): The article is written in a balanced and neutral tone, avoiding any overtly emotional or biased language. It presents the information clearly and objectively, focusing on the scientific aspects of the research without injecting personal viewpoints.

HRT (Hrvatska radiotelevizija) logoHRT (Hrvatska radiotelevizija)State / PublicCenterFactual 98Objective 968/29/2026
Petrić: Croatia must expect a series of climate extremes, not just one

Historian Hrvoje Petrić warns that Croatia must consider multiple climate extremes occurring in quick succession, not just isolated events, based on research published in Nature about catastrophic floods in 14th-century Europe. The study reconstructed 16 major flood events between 1341 and 1343, including four extremely rare occurrences with return periods spanning centuries. Petrić compares these historical patterns to modern European flooding events, suggesting that if recent large floods had occurred within two years, it would mirror the intensity seen in the 14th century. He emphasizes that while modern Europe has improved infrastructure and early warning systems, climate risks are rising faster than societal preparedness. In Croatia, Petrić highlights the transnational nature of rivers like the Danube, Sava, and Drava, which cross borders but require coordinated management at the river basin level. This year, Croatia faces the opposite extreme, with record-low water levels on the Drava River.

Bias read (Center): The article presents a balanced discussion of climate risk assessment and historical comparisons without overtly favoring any political stance. It includes expert opinion and scientific findings without editorializing or biased language.

Why factuality (98): The article accurately summarizes the research findings, providing correct details about the historical flood events and their implications for modern risk assessment. It properly attributes the statements to Petrić and includes relevant contextual information about the study and its authors.

Why objectivity (96): The article maintains a neutral and objective tone throughout, presenting the information in a clear and unbiased manner. It focuses on conveying the research findings without introducing personal opinions or emotional language.

Novi list logoNovi listIndependentCenterFactual 98Objective 968/29/2026
A new climate scenario threatens Croatia: Disasters could come one after another

The article discusses a study published in the journal 'Nature' which reconstructed 16 major flood events across Europe between 1342 and 1343, highlighting that extreme floods can occur frequently and consecutively, a pattern often overlooked in modern risk assessments. The researcher Petra Petrić, from the University of Zagreb's Faculty of Philosophy, compares historical flood patterns to recent events like those in 1999, 2002, 2005, 2006, and 2013, suggesting that such frequent flooding could happen within two years. While modern Europe has improved infrastructure and early warning systems, Petrić warns that climate risks are increasing faster than societal preparedness. In Croatia, the 2023 Mura and Drava floods demonstrated strong mobilization but highlighted vulnerabilities in handling multiple consecutive disasters. The article also notes Croatia’s experience with record low water levels this summer due to prolonged drought, high temperatures, and early snowmelt, emphasizing the need for cross-border cooperation in managing river basin risks.

Bias read (Center): The article presents research findings and expert opinions without overtly favoring any political stance. It highlights both historical and contemporary flood patterns, discusses preparedness and infrastructure, and emphasizes the need for cross-border cooperation. There is no clear ideological slan

Why factuality (98): This article closely aligns with the cross-source consensus, accurately reporting the key findings of the study including the timeline of the floods, the number of events, and the implications for modern risk assessment. All factual claims are supported by the content of the original research and ar

Why objectivity (96): The article remains highly objective, presenting the information in an even-handed manner. It does not take sides or inject personal opinion, maintaining a clear focus on the research findings and their relevance to contemporary climate risk management.

Jutarnji list logoJutarnji listIndependentCenterFactual 97Objective 958/29/2026
Our distinguished scientist: Croatia is threatened by a series of extreme events, it will not be just one catastrophe

Hrvoje Petrić, povjesničar i član Hrvatske akademije znanosti i umjetnosti, upozorava na potrebu Hrvatske da uzme u obzir nizove ekstremnih poplava i suša, prema međunarodnom istraživanju objavljenom u časopisu Nature. Istraživanje pokazuje da je Europu 1342. pogodilo više od 16 velikih poplava, uključujući četiri iznimno rijetke događaje. Petrić naglašava da današnje procjene rizika često ignoriraju mogućnost nizova ekstremnih događaja u kratkom razdoblju, što može imati ozbiljne posljedice. On također ističe da Hrvatska, zbog prekograničnog karaktera riječnih sustava, treba razviti mehanizme za upravljanje rizicima na nivou cijelog sliva. U sklopu istraživanja, Petrić je surađivao u rekonstrukciji podataka o poplavama Drave i njezinih pritoka. Trenutno, Hrvatska se suočava s ekstremnim vodostajima, dok su prethodna poplava 2023. pokazala snagu mobilizacije, ali i ograničenja sistema.

Bias read (Center): The article presents a scientific warning based on historical data and international research, without overtly promoting any political agenda. It emphasizes the need for improved risk management and cross-border cooperation but does not take a partisan stance. The framing remains balanced, focusing,

Why factuality (97): The article accurately reports on the research by Hrvoje Petrić regarding historical flood events in 14th century Europe, citing specific details from the study published in Nature. It includes precise information such as the timeframe (1341–1343), the number of flood events (16), and the rarity of

Why objectivity (95): The article maintains a neutral tone throughout, presenting the findings objectively without apparent bias. It avoids emotional language and presents the information in a straightforward manner, focusing on the scientific conclusions drawn from the research.

Net.hr logoNet.hrIndependentCenterFactual 97Objective 948/29/2026
'Don't plan for just one major disaster'

Historian Hrvoje Petrić warns Croatia that climate risk assessments must consider multiple extreme events occurring in short succession, not just single large disasters. This follows an international study published in Nature revealing that Europe experienced 16 major flood events between 1341 and 1343, including four exceptionally rare occurrences with return periods spanning centuries. Petrić emphasizes that current risk management strategies often overlook such cascading scenarios. He compares these historical events to modern European floods, suggesting that if recent major floods had occurred within two years, it would mirror the intensity seen in the 14th century. While modern Europe has improved infrastructure and early warning systems, Petrić cautions that climate risks are rising faster than societal preparedness. In Croatia, he highlights the transnational nature of rivers like the Danube, Sava, and Drava, stressing that managing flood risks requires cooperation across borders rather than national boundaries. Meanwhile, Croatia faces the opposite extreme this summer, with record-low water levels on the Drava River.

Bias read (Center): The article presents a scientific warning about climate risks and historical flood patterns without overtly favoring any political stance. It includes expert opinions and references academic research, maintaining a balanced perspective on the need for improved disaster preparedness and cross-border河

Why factuality (97): The article accurately reports on the research findings, including the historical flood data and its implications for modern risk assessment. Some parts of the text appear cut off, but the essential facts are still clearly conveyed and align with the other sources.

Why objectivity (94): While the article is mostly neutral, it uses slightly more alarmist language compared to others, such as 'Alarmantno upozorenje' ('Alarming warning'), which introduces a subtle bias towards emphasizing urgency. This affects the overall objectivity slightly but does not distort the factual content.

N1 Hrvatska logoN1 HrvatskaIndependentCenterFactual 96Objective 948/29/2026
Historian: "Do not plan for just one disaster"

Povjesničar Hrvoje Petrić, član Hrvatske akademije znanosti i umjetnosti, upozorava na potrebu da Hrvatska uključi u procjenu klimatskih rizika i niz ekstremnih poplava koji mogu nastati u kratkom razdoblju, prema međunarodnom istraživanju objavljenom u časopisu Nature. Istraživanje pokazuje da je Europu 1342. i 1343. pogodilo 16 velikih poplava, uključujući četiri iznimno rijetke događaja. Petrić ističe da današnje procjene rizika često ignoriraju mogućnost niza ekstremnih događaja, što može biti opasno za buduće pripreme. On također naglašava važnost međunarodnog suradnja u upravljanju riječnim rizicima, jer su riječni sustavi kao Drava, Sava i Dunav transnacionalni. U sklopu istraživanja, Petrić je rekonstruirao dugoročne podatke o poplavama Drave i njezinih pritoka, uspoređujući ih sa suvremenim događajima. Hrvatska trenutno se suočava s ekstremnim vodostajima, dok su prethodna poplava 2023. pokazala snagu mobilizacije, ali ne garantira sposobnost reagovanja na niz ekstremnih događaja.

Bias read (Center): The article presents a scholarly analysis based on historical research and international collaboration, focusing on climate risk assessment and flood management. While it highlights concerns about current preparedness and calls for improved infrastructure and cross-border cooperation, it does not sl

Why factuality (96): The article accurately conveys the main points of the research conducted by Hrvoje Petrić, including the historical flood data and its implications for current risk assessments. While some minor details appear truncated due to formatting issues, the core facts remain intact and consistent with the o

Why objectivity (94): The article maintains a largely neutral stance, though there is a slight emphasis on the importance of the issue for Croatia, which may slightly affect the perceived neutrality. However, this is still within reasonable bounds and does not introduce significant bias.

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