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How a minor or major housing downturn could impact your city
Australia🏛️ PoliticsCenter10 days ago

How a minor or major housing downturn could impact your city

An analysis by property data firm Cotality suggests that even a double-digit decline in Australian home values would have limited impact on mid-sized housing markets due to gains made during a five-year housing boom. The report outlines four potential downturn scenarios, ranging from a 5% to 20% price drop, showing how different cities might be affected. Melbourne, which saw peak dwelling values of $840,000 in November 2025, has a thinner buffer compared to cities like Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide, which experienced strong growth. Modelling from ANZ indicates property prices could fall by 4.3% this year and 3.4% in 2027, driven by declines in Sydney and Melbourne. Economists note that factors such as high interest rates, tax policy changes, and global uncertainty are contributing to market softening. Auction clearance rates in major cities are below 50%, historically linked to price drops. Chief economist Diaswati Mardiasmo argues a 20% decline is unrealistic, suggesting a 5% drop is more likely, citing ongoing economic conditions and inflation trends.

Australian property prices are facing mounting pressure as major banks and analysts predict further declines, with some suggesting a potential double-digit drop in value. According to ANZ, a 4.3 per cent fall in property prices is expected this year, followed by a 3.4 per cent decline in 2027. These projections are based on a peak-to-trough decline of 14.5 per cent in Sydney and 12.8 per cent in Melbourne. The predictions come amid a cooling housing market, marked by reduced auction clearance rates and a slowdown in buyer activity. The analysis from property data firm Cotality outlines the potential impacts of different downturn scenarios on capital cities. A 10 per cent decline in Melbourne would bring property values back to pre-pandemic levels, highlighting the vulnerability of certain markets. In contrast, cities like Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide have experienced substantial growth over the past five years, providing them with a buffer against potential declines. Even a 20 per cent drop in Perth would leave median dwelling values near their levels from April 2025, indicating resilience in some regions despite the overall downturn. Economists from ANZ, Madeline Dunk and Adam Boyton, noted that the housing market has softened more than anticipated since their last forecast update in June. Prices in Sydney and Melbourne have fallen more sharply than expected, while Brisbane and Perth have begun experiencing declines earlier than predicted. They attributed this trend to restrictive interest rates, recent tax policy changes, and global uncertainties affecting market sentiment. Key indicators of market weakness include auction clearance rates, which are currently below 50 per cent in major cities like Sydney and Melbourne, historically linked to price drops. Despite these concerns, PRD chief economist Diaswati Mardiasmo expressed skepticism about a double-digit downturn, stating it would require a situation akin to the Global Financial Crisis. She argued that a 5 per cent drop is more plausible given the ongoing decline in inflation. Mardiasmo suggested that if inflation continues to decrease toward the Reserve Bank of Australia's target of 3.4 to 3.5 per cent, the market might experience a turnaround by mid-to-late 2027. ANZ economists also anticipate recovery by 2028, citing supply constraints and construction sector limitations that make prolonged price declines unlikely. The Reserve Bank of Australia emphasized that while it monitors the effects of the housing market downturn, its primary focus remains on managing inflation through interest rate adjustments. Governor Michele Bullock highlighted concerns about excess capacity, tight labor markets, especially in construction, and global events like the Middle East conflict and the AI boom. Despite this, the RBA expects gradual declines in house prices for a period, as outlined in its latest economic forecasts. Commonwealth Bank of Australia CEO Matt Comyn advised his children to consider entering the housing market within the next 12 months, suggesting that the current environment presents a favorable opportunity for first-time buyers. He pointed out that while property prices have dropped in Sydney and Melbourne, interest rates are likely peaking, and the economy is slowing. Comyn acknowledged the challenges posed by declining home-loan applications, noting a 15 per cent drop since May, alongside a 28 per cent decline in investor applications. However, he indicated that demand had stabilized recently, reflecting a potential bottoming out of the market. The impact of the federal budget's tax changes and recent interest rate hikes has significantly affected the mortgage market. The budget introduced measures limiting negative gearing for new properties and altering capital gains tax discounts. These policies have contributed to a noticeable decline in home-loan applications across major banks, with CBA reporting a 15 per cent drop since May. While Comyn recognized the challenges faced by the bank's home-lending division, he noted that the broader banking system remained robust, with strong performance across multiple divisions. The bank's net profit increased by 7 per cent, reaching $10.9 billion, although its net interest margin saw a slight decline due to various operational costs and investments.

5 reports

ABC News (Australia) logoABC News (Australia)State / PublicCenterFactual 85Objective 8012 days ago
Commonwealth Bank home loan applications fall 15pc since May

Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported a 15 percent decline in home loan applications since May, attributed to three interest rate hikes and changes from the federal budget affecting property taxes. While the bank's net profit increased by 7 percent to $10.9 billion, it noted a broader housing market slowdown, with competitors like Westpac and NAB also experiencing significant drops. The bank's CEO, Matt Comyn, mentioned that application volumes had stabilized recently and forecasted mortgage credit growth to remain within a narrow range. The budget introduced measures such as removing the 50 percent capital gains tax discount and imposing a minimum 30 percent tax on net capital gains, impacting both new and existing property investors. The timing of these economic pressures coincided with the Reserve Bank's rate increases, leading to cautious outlooks for future interest rates.

Bias read (Center): The article presents a balanced overview of the economic factors influencing the housing market, including government policy changes and central bank decisions. It reports on data from multiple institutions (Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB) without overtly favoring any particular political stance. S

Why factuality (85): The article reports on a 15% drop in Commonwealth Bank home loan applications since May, citing three interest rate hikes and tax changes from the federal budget. It references other banks' figures (Westpac -20%, NAB -15%) and quotes CBA CEO Matt Comyn. These details align with the cross-source cons

Why objectivity (80): The article presents the information in a neutral tone, quoting officials and providing context about the housing market downturn. While it highlights the impact of policy changes, it avoids taking sides or expressing personal opinion. However, the emphasis on 'early impact' and 'housing market down

ABC News (Australia) logoABC News (Australia)State / PublicCenterFactual 80Objective 8510 days ago
How a minor or major housing downturn could impact your city

An analysis by property data firm Cotality suggests that even a double-digit decline in Australian home values would have limited impact on mid-sized housing markets due to gains made during a five-year housing boom. The report outlines four potential downturn scenarios, ranging from a 5% to 20% price drop, showing how different cities might be affected. Melbourne, which saw peak dwelling values of $840,000 in November 2025, has a thinner buffer compared to cities like Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide, which experienced strong growth. Modelling from ANZ indicates property prices could fall by 4.3% this year and 3.4% in 2027, driven by declines in Sydney and Melbourne. Economists note that factors such as high interest rates, tax policy changes, and global uncertainty are contributing to market softening. Auction clearance rates in major cities are below 50%, historically linked to price drops. Chief economist Diaswati Mardiasmo argues a 20% decline is unrealistic, suggesting a 5% drop is more likely, citing ongoing economic conditions and inflation trends.

Bias read (Center): The article presents analysis from multiple economic experts and institutions without overtly favoring any particular political ideology. It reports on differing opinions regarding the likelihood and severity of a housing market downturn, including perspectives from Cotality, ANZ economists, and Dr.

Why factuality (80): The article provides detailed modeling from Cotality and ANZ about potential housing market declines, including specific percentages for different cities. It cites researchers and economists, offering a comprehensive overview of possible outcomes based on historical data and economic models. The inf

Why objectivity (85): The article maintains a neutral tone, presenting various scenarios and expert analyses without taking a clear position on whether the market is improving or worsening. It focuses on data and projections, avoiding emotional language or advocacy for particular viewpoints. The balance between different

The Age logoThe AgeIndependentCenterFactual 75Objective 6011 days ago
Is it time to buy a house? Here is what the CBA chief would tell his kids

The article discusses whether now is a good time to buy a house, focusing on the perspective of Matt Comyn, CEO of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). Despite declining house prices in major cities like Sydney and Melbourne, and a slowdown in the economy, Comyn advises that the current period could be favorable for entering the housing market due to falling prices, potentially decreasing interest rates, and increased availability of properties in the upcoming spring season. He notes that while home-loan applications have dropped significantly since May, this might indicate reduced competition for buyers. However, the article also highlights concerns within CBA regarding the impact of lower loan volumes on the bank's profitability, particularly with increased competition and changes in government policies affecting capital gains and negative gearing.

Bias read (Center): The article presents both perspectives, Matt Comyn's optimistic outlook on the housing market and the concerns raised by analysts about the impact on CBA's profits. It does not exhibit strong bias toward either side, providing balanced information without overtly favoring one viewpoint over another.

Why factuality (75): Similar to Article 1, this article presents CBA CEO Matt Comyn's hypothetical advice to his children and ties it to a 15% drop in home-loan applications. It includes similar speculative statements about housing prices and market conditions. While the data points are referenced, they lack direct sour

Why objectivity (60): This article shares the same optimistic bias as Article 1, promoting the idea that the housing market is reaching a favorable point for buyers. It uses emotionally charged language ('sweet spot', 'glass half-full') and frames the situation in a way that encourages action, which is more aligned with

The Sydney Morning Herald logoThe Sydney Morning HeraldIndependentCenterFactual 75Objective 6011 days ago
Is it time to buy a house? Here is what the CBA chief would tell his kids

The article discusses whether now is a good time to buy a house, focusing on the perspective of Matt Comyn, CEO of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). Despite declining house prices in major cities like Sydney and Melbourne, and a slowdown in the economy, Comyn advises that the current period could be favorable for entering the housing market due to falling prices, potentially decreasing interest rates, and increased availability of properties in the upcoming spring season. He notes that while home-loan applications have dropped significantly since May, this might indicate reduced competition for buyers. However, the article also highlights concerns within CBA regarding the impact of lower loan volumes on the bank's profitability, particularly with increased competition and changes in government policies affecting capital gains and negative gearing.

Bias read (Center): The article presents both perspectives, Matt Comyn's optimistic outlook on the housing market and the concerns raised by analysts at Jarden about the implications for CBA's profits. It does not exhibit strong bias toward either side, providing balanced information without overtly favoring one view.

Why factuality (75): The article discusses CBA CEO Matt Comyn's advice to his children regarding buying a house, referencing a 15% drop in home-loan applications since May. While these numbers are mentioned, they are presented in a speculative context tied to an opinion piece. The article lacks direct sourcing for the c

Why objectivity (60): The article takes a clearly optimistic stance, suggesting that now might be a good time to buy a house. It uses phrases like 'glass half-full view' and frames the market as being at a 'sweet spot,' which introduces a subjective perspective. This leans toward promotional or advisory content rather th

The Australian logoThe AustralianIndependent🔒ConservativeFactual 70Objective 6513 days ago
Loan groan: ANZ tips double-digit property price fall

The Australian reports that ANZ, Australia's largest lender, predicts a significant decline in property prices, forecasting a 'double-digit' drop. This prediction comes amid concerns over rising interest rates and economic uncertainty, which are affecting housing market dynamics. The report highlights growing anxiety among homeowners and potential buyers, suggesting that the downturn could lead to substantial financial strain. While the article presents ANZ's forecast as a key development, it does not provide alternative viewpoints or counterarguments from other financial institutions or experts.

Bias read (Conservative): The article frames the property price decline as a negative outcome, emphasizing the impact on homeowners and the broader economy. It uses terms like 'loan groan' and 'double-digit fall,' which carry a negative connotation, potentially aligning with conservative economic perspectives that often view

Why factuality (70): The article focuses primarily on ANZ's prediction about property prices without providing sufficient context or sourcing. It lacks direct reference to the RBA's speech and instead relies on external commentary, which reduces its factual alignment with the primary source. The content is more opinion-

Why objectivity (65): The tone leans towards concern about property prices and financial strain, suggesting a particular viewpoint on the impact of interest rates. The article frames the situation in a way that highlights homeowner distress, potentially introducing a biased perspective.

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